THE BOUNDARY Commission for Northern Ireland has proposed major changes to the North’s Westminster constituencies which would reduce the number of MPs by two and possibly influence the size of the Stormont Assembly.
The commission in a consultation document published today seeks to cut the number of single-seat Westminster constituencies from 18 to 16, with the most dramatic changes in Belfast, where three instead of the current four constituencies are envisaged.
There are 108 Assembly members at Stormont based on 18 six-seater constituencies. However, if the new commission proposals are adopted, it would probably mean that the Assembly would be reduced by at least by 12 seats to 96 seats, based on 16 six-seater constituencies.
Moreover, the DUP in particular has been pressing to further reduce the size of the Assembly. This could mean 16 five-seater constituencies which would slim down the Assembly to 80 seats.
Sinn Féin could be amenable to such changes as the smaller parties, such as the Ulster Unionists, the SDLP and the Alliance Party, would most likely suffer the most were such changes adopted.
There are five newly named and configured constituencies: Belfast South West, Belfast South East, Mid Antrim, Glenshane and Mid-Tyrone. Constituency names which disappear in the carve-up are South Belfast, East Belfast, West Belfast, East Derry, East Antrim, South Antrim, West Tyrone and Mid-Ulster. All constituencies are to be reconfigured.
Based on recent elections, the two parties most likely to lose Westminster seats are the SDLP and DUP.
This could result in a Westminster representation of: DUP, seven seats (down one); Sinn Féin, five seats; SDLP, two seats (down one), Independent unionist (Lady Hermon in North Down), one seat, Alliance, one seat.
The SDLP is likely to be especially concerned about the proposed Westminster changes as the South Belfast constituency would transfer into the new constituencies of Belfast South West and Belfast South East.
This could threaten the seat of the SDLP’s Dr Alasdair McDonnell, who in the previous British general election won what was a longstanding Ulster Unionist seat. He retained the seat in last year’s Westminster poll.
While SDLP support would shift into the two new constituencies, it would seem that in Belfast South West Sinn Féin would hold the advantage, while in Belfast South East, Alliance or the DUP would appear to have the best chance of taking the seat.
Under the proposals, the East Derry constituency would go, which could leave its sitting DUP MP Gregory Campbell facing the prospect of contesting another constituency or bowing out of Westminster politics and focusing on his Assembly seat.
Equally, there could be some musical chairs within the DUP with Mr Campbell possibly contesting North Antrim, which takes a considerable portion of his old constituency and Ian Paisley jnr possibly shifting to the new constituency of Mid Antrim, which takes Ballymena from North Antrim.
The new constituency of Glenshane takes over a considerable portion of Mid Ulster, currently held by Sinn Féin Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness.
If he were not prompted to try and compete against the SDLP former leader Mark Durkan in Foyle, Mr McGuinness could run in Glenshane.
Sinn Féin is currently best placed to take the new seat of Mid Tyrone which takes in parts of West Tyrone, where the sitting MP is Sinn Féin’s Pat Doherty, and Mid-Ulster.
Former Sinn Féin junior minister Gerry Kelly had been encroaching into the DUP vote in North Belfast. However, with the loyalist Shankill proposed to shift from West Belfast into North Belfast this should secure Nigel Dodd’s seat for the DUP.
There will be 12 weeks of consultations on the proposals.
The deputy chairman of the commission, Mr Justice Richard McLaughlin, said that publication of the proposals was only the beginning of a lengthy and inclusive consultation process which would be replicated across the rest of the UK by the other boundary commissions.
“We would encourage anyone with an interest to contribute to this consultation,” he said.
