Ratings fall for all party leaders as social solidarity frays

In today's Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, Fine Gael comes out on top with 35 per cent support (down two points), followed by Sinn Féin on 29 per cent (up four points) and Fianna Fáil on 17 per cent (up three points).

Support for the Green Party has declined sharply to 4 per cent (down eight points), while Labour’s vote has doubled, to 4 per cent.

Independents and others are on 11 per cent, a marginal increase of one point.

Fieldwork for this latest poll took place from Saturday October 3rd to Tuesday 6th, with interviewing undertaken both before and after the National Public Health Emergency Team’s (Nphet) recommendation that the country move to Level 5 restrictions and the Government’s subsequent decision to instead move the country to Level 3 restrictions.

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Our poll was carried out face-to-face, in-home among a nationally representative sample of 1,200 adults aged 18+, covering 120 sampling points across all constituencies in the Republic of Ireland.

Today’s poll also provides our first measure of satisfaction with the new Government. A 48 per cent satisfaction rating is relatively high when viewed against historic poll data. However when compared with the unprecedented high achieved by the previous Government in our June poll, it shows a decline of 24 points.

Government satisfaction is highest among those aged 65+ (61 per cent) and those living in Dublin (56 per cent).

Sinn Féin have recorded their highest rating, helped by jumps in support from those aged 35 to 49  and from farmers

Fine Gael take top spot in today’s poll despite a marginal decline in support since June. An analysis of Fine Gael’s support across the various demographic cohorts paints a mixed picture of both losses and gains for the party. The party’s biggest loss was among farmers, dropping 13 points to 45 per cent, while their biggest gain was among 25 to 34-year-olds, up 10 points to 34 per cent.

Sinn Féin have recorded their highest rating ever in an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, helped by jumps in support from those aged 35 to 49 (up 12 points to 30 per cent) and from farmers (up 11 points to 17 per cent).

Fianna Fáil, up three points to 17 per cent, has made gains across the board, with the exceptions of 18 to 24-year-olds where support has fallen marginally, by one point, to 10 per cent, and among ABC1s where support has held steady at 14 per cent.

Support for the Green Party has dropped to its lowest level since May 2019, with declines recorded across all demographics, most notably among 18 to 24-year-olds (down 15 points to 7 per cent) and Dublin voters (down 10 points to 9 per cent). It is proving difficult for any issue, even one as significant as climate change, to cut through the Covid-19 noise.

Labour’s support has returned to General Election levels and is underpinned by increases across all demographics, with the exception of those aged over 50 and those living in Dublin, among whom support levels are unchanged.

Today's poll shows Tánaiste Leo Varadkar maintaining his position as the most popular party leader in the State with a satisfaction level of 65 per cent (down 10 points). Mary Lou McDonald is the runner-up on 46 per cent satisfaction (down three points). Taoiseach Micheál Martin is on 39 per cent (down seven points) and Eamon Ryan is on 27 per cent (down 13 points).

Varadkar appears to have struck a chord with Fine Gael voters, among whom he is almost universally liked

The declines in satisfaction recorded for all party leaders are perhaps not surprising given the unprecedented satisfaction levels recorded in our June poll at a time when our political leaders were being applauded for uniting behind our response to the Covid crisis.

Varadkar appears to have struck a chord with Fine Gael voters, among whom he is almost universally liked, achieving a 94 per cent satisfaction rating. Interestingly, the majority of Fianna Fáil voters (75 per cent) are also satisfied with the Tánaiste’s performance, only marginally lower than the rating (76 per cent) they afford their own party leader Micheál Martin.

As one would expect, Mary Lou McDonald continues to perform strongly among Sinn Féin voters with 86 per cent satisfaction, while just under three-quarters (72 per cent) of Green Party voters are satisfied with leader Eamon Ryan.

It has been widely quoted that it is easier to enter than exit lockdown. As we enter another stage in the Covid-19 response and another level of nationwide restrictions, the Government will need to recover the cohesion and confidence that characterised the initial response to maintain public support.