LEBANON:THE MASSING Of 10,000 Syrian troops on the Lebanese border this week has raised fears among Damascus's opponents in Beirut that Syria is seeking to consolidate its influence over its smaller neighbour.
The deployment, accompanied by the reinforcement of existing military positions, is ostensibly to prevent cross-border smuggling, but it comes at a sensitive time for Lebanon, which is in the midst of setting parameters for parliamentary elections in May next year.
Beirut and Damascus have in recent months been working to improve relations, which deteriorated sharply after the 2005 assassination of Rafiq Hariri, the former prime minister - an act widely blamed on Syria.
Damascus denied all involvement but the ensuing public outrage led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, ending three decades of military and political domination. But it retains influence through its support for political forces in Lebanon including Hizbullah, the armed Shia movement heading the opposition.
"There are fears that Syrian influence is growing again," said one European diplomat in Beirut. "The Syrians are determined [that their proxies] win the elections - the stakes are high." The neighbours, under pressure from France to improve ties, are in the process of opening embassies in each other's capitals and Michel Suleiman, the Lebanese president, visited Bashar al-Assad, his Syrian counterpart, last month.
Nevertheless, a significant number of Lebanese remain sceptical about whether Damascus is finally prepared to recognise their country as independent.
Some politicians believe that recent sectarian fighting in the northern port city of Tripoli was fuelled by Syria, looking for an excuse to re-enter Lebanon.
"[The Syrians] want to use the situation in Tripoli as a pretext to involve themselves in Lebanese affairs and use it as a means for their military and security to return to Lebanon," Saad Hariri, the son of the slain Sunni premier, who leads the broadly anti-Syrian March 14th movement, said as the fighting continued.
Others believe that Sunnis were fighting in Tripoli to put pressure on Alawites, the Muslim sect to which Syria's Mr Assad belongs.
"We are worried about what is happening in Tripoli," Mr Assad told Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, in Damascus last month.
He later asked Mr Suleiman to "urgently send more troops" to Tripoli to combat "extremism".
Lebanon remains a divided country, with citizens holding very different views on how it should be governed. Such divisions brought it close to civil war in May, when Hizbullah took over Sunni areas in Beirut. The fighting led to an agreement in Doha to form a national unity government and to the start this month of a national dialogue, intended to define the status of Hizbullah and its weapons.
The new tensions surrounding Syria and its role in Lebanon could undermine these efforts at reconciliation, analysts say. "We are now in the middle of a big confrontation," said Sarkis Naoum, a widely respected columnist for An-Nahar, a pro-March 14th newspaper. "Syria and Iran are ready to help their allies in Lebanon and to provide them with weapons and ammunition," he said. - ( Financial Times service)