In the Ireland of today, and noticeably over the recent past, it has become increasingly discomfiting to set out the background against which political research projects are conducted - a prerequisite in every such operation. This applies at two levels: in the general sociological context, and also in more immediate political terms.
Irish society, the by-product of our florid Celtic Tiger economy, is now less accountable - and in many respects less caring - than even half a generation ago. It is also a place where some values, including the fulfilment of one's civic duties, have deteriorated to the extent that in the last general election 11 per cent fewer people voted than on a comparable occasion 16 years previously.
Except for committed supporters of the parties - estimated at less than three electors in every five - many no longer see the political establishment as relevant to them, and while virtually all are willing to answer questions in opinion polls, and give their attention to the subject matter of the interview, they immediately revert to their personal priorities. This, of course, is as it should be.
The questions which should be of concern to all politicians, however, are why so many electors are no longer turning out to vote; why so many are so dismissive of the political establishment; and why so many feel it is irrelevant to them who is in government. The situation also presents new technical problems for the professional researcher.
Today's poll, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, is the third in the series this year. Since the last was published two months ago in April, a lot of water - much of it not transparent - has passed under the bridge.
The main factors which could have influenced public opinion in the meantime, were: Frank Dunlop's evidence to the Flood tribunal; the nomination of Hugh O'Flaherty to the European Investment Bank (and the High Court ruling that it could go ahead); the publication of the reports of the respective internal inquiries by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael; the sequel to these which involved three Fine Gael members and the resignation of Liam Lawlor from Fianna Fail; John Bruton's statement that Michael Lowry could rejoin Fine Gael when he had paid his debt to society and settled his tax affairs; and finally, and perhaps most significantly, Tuesday's announcement - coinciding with the start of the survey - that the May inflation figure had risen to 5.2 per cent.
The figures in today's survey will not surprise most neutral observers, but they bring little joy to the Taoiseach, Tanaiste or indeed to John Bruton, the Fine Gael leader. The political pendulum has clearly moved in the direction of independent candidates - including those elected - and also towards the Labour, Green and Sinn Fein parties, and it is possible that the identities of the power-brokers in the formation of the next government are beginning to emerge.
However, firm indications on future trends cannot be drawn from one survey, and the remaining months of this year, specifically against the continuing background of the tribunals, will be crucial. In net party support terms, Fianna Fail on 45 per cent is positioned at its lowest level since the general election of June 1997. However, the potential volatility of mid-term figures must be kept in mind, and in May 1999 the party dropped to 46 per cent but recovered to 51 per cent in April this year.
The significant point is the party has lost six percentage points support over the past two months, and it is possible the recurring revelations in the tribunals and inquiries are beginning to take effect. Further analyses show that ail supporters - three in every five Fianna Fail supporters consider that the Government was wrong in nominating Mr O'Flaherty as vice-president of the EIB.
A further fall-out is that Fine Gael has not only not benefited from the Fianna Fail loss, but the party has also lost significant support over the same two-month period, 4 per cent. It would appear that the two main parties are now perceived by many electors to be culpable, and it is possible that the outcome of the two internal tribunals may have backfired.
Four parties emerge satisfactorily from the survey, one particularly so. The Labour Party has increased its support by three points since April, this being complemented by the fact that Ruairi Quinn is the sole party leader to have increased his satisfaction ratings over the same period, and although the figures cannot be superimposed on the South Tipperary constituency, party morale will have benefited substantially.
Sinn Fein and the Green Party, each up to 5 per cent, are well positioned to improve on their last election performances. Both have strong support in Dublin and in urban areas generally, and Sinn Fein particularly so in Border areas and in Munster.
Opinion polls frequently understate support for Independent candidates, and today's figure of 9 per cent (10 per cent when the Workers' Party is included) is the highest in any poll since the general election. Whether or not this will be sustained will not become evident for some time, but the upturn over the past two months provides further evidence of the possibility of a swing away from the two mainstream parties.
The Progressive Democrats remain solid at 4 per cent, and have been consistently so for the past 18 months almost.
To clarify a point: the figures for all parties represent the national average across all constituencies. Where small parties are concerned and support is confined to a limited number of constituencies, figures in these would be higher than those for the national average.
Having assessed the influence that the past two months have had on the support levels of the various parties, it is also evident that the Government, in collective terms, is no longer living up to its previous impact.
The current figure of 48 per cent is 12 points below its April level, and 11 below its average since the last election. However, one redeeming feature is that its ratings also dipped in November last, but bounced back again in the two subsequent opinion polls.
For the first time, Mary Harney tops the list for having lost most in satisfaction ratings since April; satisfaction has dropped by 13 points and, significantly, dissatisfaction has increased by almost the same amount, with the result that Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach - having lost just five points - continues to top the party leaders' table on 64 per cent. With Fianna Fail also dropping five points, it is not yet clear whether the Taoiseach has succeeded in distancing himself from the party fall-out.
Finally, in November of last year, MRBI applied a formula to its party support figures, designed to counteract recent overstatement of Fianna Fail support in opinion polls, and the increasing downturn in levels of turnout at election time.
Based on this formula, MRBI's estimate as to the likely standing of the parties is in the order of: Fianna Fail 40 per cent; Fine Gael 19 per cent; Labour 16 per cent; PDs 4 per cent; Green Party 6 per cent; Sinn Fein 5 per cent; Others (including WP) 10 per cent.
Jack Jones is chairman of Market Research Bureau of Ireland Ltd