Three months of wind and rain, or a season of sunshine? Weather forecasters differ, but there is some cautious optimism in the nimbostratus, writes BRIAN O'CONNELL
IF YOU are to believe the UK Met office, it might soon be time to bin the bottled tan and dig out those old Bermuda shorts. For if what it says is correct, this summer will see above average temperatures and glorious sunshine. A statement on the Met office website, metoffice.gov.uk, says it is odds on that the UK and Europe will enjoy “a barbecue summer”, with temperatures above 30 degrees and rainfall below average. But hang on to your sunhat, Bridie – is this not the same UK Met Office which, in April 2007, confidently predicted a sizzling summer? That time, the long-term forecast said it was 60 per cent likely the summer would be the warmest in more than a decade. Yet, by August that year, British forecasters were proclaiming it the wettest summer on record.
So, when it comes to this year’s predictions, is it a case of the weather forecasters crying “warm weather” once too often? Depending on who you listen to, the summer ahead is either going to contain three months of soaring temperatures and blissful sunshine, or more of the same wet and windy conditions, with a late burst of sun to come our way in early autumn.
Despite continuous advances in weather forecasting technology since the 16th century, meteorologists are still prone to getting it horribly wrong when it comes to predicting our summer weather. Unlike their British counterparts, the Irish Met Office shies away from issuing formal summer calculations, citing the lack of staff and resources to collate and analyse the data so far in advance.
Here is what meteorologist Pat Clarke of Met Éireann has to say about the coming summer: “We know that the British are expecting a dry summer and I hope they’re right. We don’t do seasonal forecasts. It’s hard enough to get the next day right in Ireland, sometimes. My gut feeling, though, is that we rarely get three bad summers in a row. Last summer we had a very dry May and a wet summer. This year May so far has been wet and it’s not finished yet so we’re hopeful.”
On a daily basis, Met Éireann – met.ie – says advances in technology have led to accuracy levels of over 80 per cent in weather forecasting in Ireland. However, it is quick to point out that predicting the weather is not an exact science, and that minor disturbances on the other side of the Atlantic can have large impacts on Irish weather patterns. In other words, don’t shoot the messenger. Another factor that hasn’t helped the weather forecaster’s plight has been the effect of climate change on global weather patterns. Researcher Dr Rod Teck of NUI Maynooth is one of those charged with anticipating what Irish weather will be like in the coming decades. So, does he think we’re in for a half-decent summer?
“I think June will probably be better than normal, and we will start to see a change next week or the week after. The east coast particularly will have fine weather, with rainfall in the west. Come July, I think we’ll see a breakdown in the weather patterns again, which will see a classically miserable August. Thereafter, it will get warmer and I’d predict a good September and October.”
Ken Ring, who runs a New Zealand-based website called www.predictweather.com, has been using the moon to predict the weather since the 1970s. He chanced upon his forecasting ability while living beside the sea and noticing that storms coincided with the highest tides. So, does he think we’re in for a belter? “June will be dry for the first fortnight over most of the country with temperatures above 20 degrees. July will be a mainly wet month for all, but the north, west and east may be drier from July 12th to 17th. August will be a wet month for all, with only the south getting a good sunny period between 25th and 30th. September is likely to be the warmest and most summery month for all, with the best of the summer weather between 6th and 17th for the whole country.” Ring claims 85 per cent success rate, “but it’s not an accurate science”.
Ireland also has its own amateur forecasters. The best known is Glenties postman Michael Gallagher, who takes his cue from signs in nature and has been predicting weather patterns for 26 years. Older members of the community passed many of his techniques to him and he claims 70 to 80 per cent accuracy. He says the signs for this summer are good. “I have been a lot happier with what I have seen in the last two weeks. We’ve had a lot of thunder and lightening, and I remember the older people often said if there was thunder and lightening during turf cutting in May, it was a sign of a good summer. I’m very confident of the good weather that’s to come.”
Overall then, the summer forecast is a bit of a mixed bag, with sunny rainy conditions, a chance of heatwave or washout, and the likelihood that some of the predictions will lead to high pressure and localised depression.