CHINA: The flurry of reports that Hong Kong's beleaguered chief executive Tung Chee-hwa has resigned early have been greeted with a sigh of relief in the former British colony amid hope his departure could give the territory a boost.
However, any optimism about the post-Tung era was tempered with anxiety about what Beijing might do next to quell democratic impulses there.
Analysts said the likely departure of the ineffective Mr Tung could delay efforts by democracy activists to make elections in the territory more representative.
Mr Tung, an avuncular figure who never won the confidence of Hong Kong's seven million citizens, has yet to confirm his resignation, but the feeling is that he will step down in the next few days having secured a face-saving position on a senior advisory council from the Beijing government.
Mr Tung was due to serve until 2007. According to Hong Kong's constitution, when the post becomes vacant, a new chief executive must be selected within six months.
Some experts said his resignation could set the road to democracy back by three years, as his successor would be required to serve until 2010.
This would delay the question of political change in methods for selecting the chief executive by three years. Pro-democracy activists had hoped for direct election in 2007, or at least a more representative democracy by that date.
"The election of a new CEO could mean that the government is not required to deliver a mainstream formula by the middle of this year as it originally promised," said Prof Joseph Cheng Yu-shek of Hong Kong's City University.
Whoever gets the job will face the unenviable task of balancing the wishes of the Beijing leadership with the desires of Hong Kong's democracy-hungry residents.
Mr Tung's right-hand man, chief secretary Donald Tsang, will be made acting chief executive and serve out the rest of Mr Tung's term. If he performs to par, he could well be named the next chief executive.
"The general speculation. . . is that Donald Tsang would win the election. The Chinese leadership must have an acceptable candidate before they move - they wouldn't move without one," said Prof Cheng.
Mr Tsang has won plaudits for the skill with which he steered Hong Kong through the Asian financial crisis and its worst recession in decades.
However, the man they call "Bow-tie Tsang" because of his colourful neckwear, is no shoo-in. Mr Tsang is associated with the old colonial regime, who gave him a knighthood which he has since discreetly played down. He is also a devout Catholic, which will win him few friends in secular Beijing.
The timing of Mr Tung's departure is fortunate for Beijing. The economy is growing strongly, and most of the loudest voices calling for democratic reform have been silenced by a poor showing for Hong Kong's Democrats in last autumn's elections.
However, the lack of certainty about the post-Tung era is reflected in the mixed feelings of the CEO's most staunch critics.
"Maybe Beijing has [ already] decided who should succeed Tung. If that's the case, it's very unfortunate because everything is being controlled and managed and Hong Kong people have no say," said veteran pro-democracy legislator Emily Lau.