Many observers thought the Omagh bomb marked the end of dissident republicanism. The public outrage after the explosion and the threats made against dissidents by the Provisional IRA led to the belief that they were finished.
However, it was never going to be that simple. Although the political fall-out from the bomb forced the "Real IRA" to call a ceasefire, its leaders were always unlikely to retire.
They had split from the Provisional IRA only 10 months earlier in protest at the political direction of its leadership. They were vehemently opposed to the peace process which they claimed was "a sell-out" of republicanism. That view was not changed by Omagh.
Although the public profile of the dissidents declined in the months after Omagh, they remained active. They have regrouped into a new umbrella organisation calling itself "Oglaigh na hEireann", a name the mainstream IRA has traditionally used.
The new group is a coalition of "Real IRA" and former Continuity IRA members, and some INLA members who opposed their organisation's ceasefire.
Despite the defection of some of its activists, the Continuity IRA leadership has refused to join and remains an independent organisation. It is the only republican paramilitary group not on ceasefire.
It has carried out three attacks since Omagh. It opened fire on an RUC Land Rover in Co Armagh last September. It launched gun attacks on RUC bases in west Belfast and Lisnaskea, Co Fermanagh, in January and May respectively. No one was injured.
Although the "Oglaigh na hEireann" group is substantially smaller than the Provisional IRA, it is expanding. The majority of Provisional IRA members have remained loyal, but there have been defections in some areas.
The new group has also focused on recruiting young people with no previous history of paramilitary involvement and thus unknown to the security forces. Security sources fear this could cause considerable problems in future.
The first public confirmation of the new organisation's existence and intentions came recently at a function for dissident republican prisoners in Derry. A message was read out from five inmates in Maghaberry Prison, Co Antrim.
"We reject any internal settlement and only subscribe to a 32-county democratic socialist republic," they said. "We call on all republicans to show support for Oglaigh na hEireann. The British haven't gone away, you know, but neither have we."
Since Omagh, the dissidents had held all their public functions in the North along the south Armagh border. The fact that they chose to hold this one in Derry, where the Provisional IRA has traditionally been in control, indicates increasing confidence.
Around 150 people attended, including men in their late 20s and 30s. It is understood there have been defections from the Provisional IRA to "Oglaigh na hEireann" in the city. The dissidents have also made inroads in south Derry and east Tyrone.
Belfast has proved more loyal to the Provisional IRA, but the dissidents have a small presence in the city, including in west Belfast. They claim they will gain further support if Sinn Fein accepts the Patten report; if there is any movement by the Provisional IRA on decommissioning; or if the Drumcree march is allowed down the Garvaghy Road.
Politically, republican dissidents are continuing to oppose the Belfast Agreement and are becoming more vocal. The 32 County Sovereignty Movement's monthly newspaper, the Sovereign Nation, recently went on sale for the first time in west Belfast.
The former Noraid publicity director, Mr Martin Galvin, addressed a meeting of around 200 Sovereignty Movement supporters in Dundalk, Co Louth, a fortnight ago. In a hardline speech, he predicted the dissidents would win more grassroots support as the Sinn Fein leadership made "further compromises".
The Sovereignty Movement recently opened a branch in Derry. Its increasing militancy was reflected in a speech by its chairman, Cllr Francie Mackey, of Omagh, who said it planned to "build the strongest republican opposition ever to British rule in Ireland".
He continued: "I pay tribute to those who continue to oppose British rule and throughout our history have defended the will of the Irish people to be free."
RUC sources said they believe "Oglaigh na hEireann" is poised to launch an attack. However, other observers believe the threat has been played up to counteract any proposed down-sizing of the police following the Patten report.
There are no signs from the "Oglaigh na hEireann" group itself that it is planning an imminent attack. It is understood the organisation, while capable of launching one-off attacks, does not consider itself ready to begin a sustained campaign.
Sources say the group would "carefully time" the relaunch of any campaign and would aim to chose a period when it could claim the peace process was "not delivering" for nationalists.
Contrary to previous media reports, they say it is highly unlikely that members of the proposed Northern Ireland Police Service would not be considered targets.