RAJENDRA PACHAURI, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), suffered a fresh blow last night following further allegations of inaccurate statements in panel reports.
Yesterday the Sunday Timesnewspaper carried claims that the IPCC based its claim that global warming could wipe out 40 per cent of the Amazon rainforest on a report by two activists from the World Wildlife Fund who had no scientific expertise. This is the third embarrassment in as many weeks for the IPCC over its conclusions on climate change.
Mr Pachauri, who has rejected calls for his resignation over recent weeks, yesterday failed to get the backing of the British government. A senior government official reiterated Mr Pachauri’s position but stopped short of expressing confidence in him. “The position is that he is the chair and he has indicated that mistakes were made,” the official said. “There is no vacancy at this stage, so there is no issue at this stage.”
The IPCC is required by governments to assess the science and impact of climate change. Its thousands of scientists produce major reports and summaries for policymakers. Its last report in 2007 concluded that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities were 90 per cent certain to be causing observed global warming and was accepted by all governments.
“It is clearly unfortunate that individual problems with individual papers have been found,” said the official. “But the scientific basis for climate change does not rest on a very small number of papers in which the [IPCC] review process has not been rigorous enough. It relies on thousands and thousands of papers that have been peer reviewed through scientific journals.”
The government has told the IPCC that it must ensure review standards are robust and its communication effective. “They need to communicate that 99 per cent of the science on which they base [their work] is peer reviewed,” the official said.
The incident most damaging to the IPCC was the inclusion in the 2007 report of a claim that all Himalayan glaciers could melt by 2035. The IPCC admitted last month that the claim was supported only by a quote given to journalists, blaming a failure to adhere to its own review procedures. It was also alleged that the panel was told of the error as early as 2006. In November, Mr Pachauri dismissed a report stating the 2035 claim was wrong as “voodoo science”.
A claim made by the IPCC that climate change was melting glaciers in the European Alps, the Andes and Africa was reported by the Sunday Telegraphyesterday to be based on a student dissertation and a climbing magazine article, not scientific journal papers.
Scientists remain convinced, however, that glaciers are melting rapidly. Last week, the World Glacier Monitoring Service’s annual report indicated most glaciers were continuing to melt at historically high rates.
Other individual claims allegedly not supported by peer-reviewed scientific papers are that climate change has increased the severity of natural disasters such as hurricanes – an allegation denied by the IPCC – and the claims about the rainforest, which the panel says “could react drastically to even a slight reduction in precipitation” caused by global warming.
All the disputed claims appear in the second volume of the 2007 IPCC report, which deals with the impact of rising temperatures. Scientists acknowledge there are much greater uncertainties in this area than in the volume which sets out how much the planet is warming and why.
– (Guardian service)