Dublin city’s economy will lose almost €400 million a year by 2028 if traffic changes in the capital’s latest transport plan are implemented, according to a report commissioned by businesses opposed to the initiative.
The economic analysis, commissioned by the Dublin City Centre Traders Alliance, which includes retailers Brown Thomas Arnotts, a number of car park owners and other city business groups, was submitted to Dublin City Council chief executive Richard Shakespeare on Thursday.
Following the intervention in recent weeks of the Minister of State for Enterprise, Fine Gael TD Emer Higgins, Mr Shakespeare agreed to consider an economic impact analysis commissioned by the alliance. The alliance has asked him to delay implementing the plan until at least March or April of next year.
The plan, published last year, aims to tackle the city’s worsening traffic congestion by discouraging “traffic that has no destination in the city”, with 60 per cent of motorists passing through rather than stopping.
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The measures do not ban motorists from crossing any Liffey bridge currently open to cars and the council said access to city car parks would be maintained, but certain routes would be for public transport and cyclists only. The plan also envisages the creation of a number of new pedestrian plazas.
Donald McDonald, chief executive of Brown Thomas Arnotts, said the plan “actively discourages people from shopping in the city” and “runs the risk of inflicting irreparable damage to city centre trade” which would “ultimately lead to the closure of some businesses and the loss of thousands of jobs”.
The analysis by Pat McCloughan of PMCA Economic Consulting, maintains that in 2028, when all the measures in the plan are due to be implemented, the traffic changes would reduce retail spending in the city centre by more than €141 million, result in the loss of up to 6,242 jobs – “1,787 in retailing and 4,455 in other sectors” – and contribute to a “total adverse monetary impact” of more than €390 million in that year.
The analysis is based on the average retail spending of people using different modes of transport and an assessment of the difference between people’s transport choices on current trends and if the transport plan changes were implemented.
However, it does not appear to take into account the council and National Transport Authority assessment that 60 per cent of motorists using the city centre are passing through and not stopping.
Mr Shakespeare on Thursday said a decision on whether to pause the plan would be taken “in the week commencing July 22nd”. He met environmental, commuter and health organisations seeking the “full and on-time” implementation of the plan on Thursday. These included the Irish Heart Foundation, the Dublin Commuter Coalition, An Taisce, Irish Doctors for the Environment, the Jesuit Centre for Faith and Justice and a number of cycling campaign bodies.
Speaking after the meeting, Jason Cullen, chair of the commuter coalition, said they impressed upon Mr Shakespeare that there was no logic or value in the delay. “The businesses who are trying to stagnate the project will continue to try to stagnate the project no matter if it’s in August or it’s in March.”
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