Soothing words and royal master-stroke may sway unionists

This weekend will not be the first time the Ulster Unionist Council has made decisions with major implications for the future of its community and, indeed, the whole island.

The historian, A.T.Q. Stewart, recalls, for example, in his 1981 biography of Edward Carson: "At their annual meeting in January 1913 the Ulster Unionist Council decided that all the loyalists who had been secretly drilling should be united into a single body known as the Ulster Volunteer Force . . ."

The UUC could be militant, but it could also be pragmatic and a few years later it made the painful decision to accept that only six counties could be safely held and that unionists in the other three counties of Ulster, not to mention the rest of the island, would have to be "abandoned" to nationalist rule.

Stewart writes that there was "great dissension and genuine emotion" as well as "difficulties of conscience over accepting the six-county settlement". They turned, as always, to Carson, himself a Dubliner and Southern unionist, who argued for acceptance. Stewart writes: "It meant, at the very least, as he cogently pointed out, that they had won the exclusion of the six counties without the fight which he had always dreaded."

There are distinct echoes in the present situation. Then, as now, the business community in the North was more eager to come to terms with the new reality than other sectors of unionism. Then, as now, it could be argued that accepting the deal on offer would prevent Armageddon. Now, we have David Trimble speaking of "a pluralist parliament for a pluralist people"; then, Carson advised the UUC: "From the outset let us see that the Catholic minority have nothing to fear from the Protestant majority."

There was no Peter Mandelson at that time, of course. The Northern Ireland Secretary is being credited with the master-stroke of securing the George Cross for the RUC. Unionists have always insisted their loyalty is to the Crown, not to Downing Street, and here is the Crown bestowing the most prestigious award next to the Victoria Cross. While there was inevitable suspicion and cynicism in some quarters, it was also clear the decision had touched a chord deep in the unionist psyche.

Perhaps Mandelson had taken to heart the advice, given to him by Eoghan Harris in the Daily Telegraph when he took office, to ensure that "every RUC widow and orphan went around with heads held high with pride", by using his gift "for finding the political hinge that allows a door that is long stuck to be pushed open".

It's early days yet, but the George Cross award may prove to be one of the more constructive interventions in Irish affairs by British royalty since King George V acted as a catalyst for the Truce of 1921 when he appealed in Belfast on June 22nd that year for "all Irishmen to pause, to stretch out the hand of forbearance and conciliation, to forgive and forget".

There should now be no political necessity for the Northern Secretary to stir up a hornets' nest among nationalists by defaulting on the recommendations of the Patten Report, and there is no indication he intends to do so. The hurt and grief suffered by the RUC widows and orphans can never be healed - any more than the hurt of other bereaved people in Northern Ireland - but it has now been recognised and honoured in a solemn way.

This afternoon, the Northern Secretary will make a soothing speech at a Belfast college, doubtless wearing one of those dark suits that make him look more like a bank manager than a spin-doctor. It could all help to calm unionist fears for the future and prevent a great panic swelling up which could swamp the peace process, sweeping away the deal worked out in the Mitchell review and ultimately David Trimble's leadership.

Nobody in either camp of unionism is taking anything for granted. The view in the pro-Trimble group is that a 60 per cent vote for the leader's approach is achievable but not certain. There are optimistic souls on the fringes of the Northern Ireland Office who talk loosely of a runaway victory, but more central figures present a less sanguine exterior.

Mr Trimble is believed to be mulling over his speech for Saturday and there may be inputs from a senior academic and others. He might, ironically, take a leaf from Martin McGuinness' speech at the 1986 Sinn Fein ardfheis when the party was abandoning abstentionism in Dail elections: the best way to sell a pragmatic approach is by talking tough.

However, one of the differences between the Sinn Fein and UUP leaderships is that the republicans tend to do their homework well in advance, preparing the base for the strategic shifts to come. Having said that, Sinn Fein's reputation for political and public relations professionalism suffered a dent last weekend with those damaging reports of comments allegedly made by senior spokesmen in the US. With so many elements, overt and covert, trying to destroy this process, it might be better for most republicans to take a vow of silence.

The "No" camp in the UUP insists it has 300-odd votes out of approximately 860 "in the bag" already, and great hopes rest on the 120 Orange Order representatives in the UUC who are expected to discuss the issue tomorrow night. While the "No" people concede that Mr Trimble is "just ahead", they claim they can still overtake him or at least take the shine off his victory. "What kind of a win is 55 per cent?" asked one prominent "No" campaigner last night.

There has been some surprise in pro-Trimble circles that the dissident MPs failed to take proper advantage of two occasions when the issue came up in the House of Commons this week.

Perhaps they were working behind the scenes or maybe they just hadn't "got their act together". Certainly, there are bonds of loyalty and even friendship which might make them hesitate to engage in all-out public warfare with their opponents in the party. One senior "No" person expressed it well when he said of a party colleague on the other side of the debate: "He's a mate, but he's wrong."