The predictability of confrontation

CURRENT ACCOUNT: Highly disruptive as it was, the stoppage by bus and rail workers this week was entirely predictable.

The bad news is that it is unlikely to be the last. An all-out confrontation is looming between Séamus Brennan and the unions over his plan to break up CIÉ and open the bus market in Dublin to competition.

In the background lies a decades-old rivalry between SIPTU and the National Bus and Railworkers' Union (NBRU), which will only add to the difficulty in reaching any agreement on reform.

Tension between the two and competition for members mean that the more intransigent can always accuse the other of appeasement or, worse, a sell-out whenever a dispute arises. This may yet prove to be the bugbear whenever Mr Brennan sets about real negotiations on his reform.

In his back pocket he may have a new national pay agreement. But the NBRU, which started life as a break-away faction from SIPTU's predecessor, the ITGWU, is not even affiliated to the Irish Congress of Trade Unions. This will make matters even more difficult to resolve.

The process is off to a bad start, with unions accusing Mr Brennan of failing to consult them. There may not yet have been any detailed discussion, but it is a little rich of the NBRU to cry foul over consultation when its own officials refused last week to attend a meeting on the reform plan in Mr Brennan's Department.

The union could justly claim that the Government is presenting its plan as a fait accompli, at variance with an agreement in the public partnership transport forum. But even the most cold-hearted reformer could not hope to get away with far-reaching change without negotiation. The realist in Mr Brennan must accept that.

Crucially, the unions have not yet named their price. They claim Mr Brennan is set on privatising Dublin Bus, which, in fairness, has not been mentioned. Amid all the arguments, the case for reform is clear. Hundreds of millions of euro are flowing from the State into CIÉ, but there is little transparency and no linkage between payment and quality or performance.