John FitzGerald: Young men take risks, but a lot less so than previously

The substantial rise in life expectancy in Ireland over the last 60 years is the single most important improvement in our wellbeing, although living standards are also dramatically higher now than when I was a teenager.

In the 1960s, life expectancy in Ireland was significantly below other comparable countries. While we have narrowed the gap a lot, Ireland still lags the best performers, like Italy or Spain, where women live on average around three years longer than here. This shows that further improvement is possible.

In 1961, life expectancy at birth for Irish boys was 68, and for girls 72, but by 2016 the figure for males had risen to almost 80 and for females to 83. A major reduction in the number of women dying in childbirth raised life expectancy for women over the period 1960-1990, but the improvements for men and women since 1990 reflect a range of other factors.

Research I did with Economic and Social Research Institute colleagues shows a systematic link between better life expectancy and higher levels of education attainment. As education levels in the population have risen, so too has overall life expectancy. In a 2011 paper with Nuša Žnuderl and David Byrne, we showed that life expectancy in 2006 for both men and women graduates was higher than those with lower levels of qualifications.

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What was particularly disturbing was that in 2006, people who had left school without qualifications had a life expectancy at age 20 that was four to five years lower than the rest of the population.

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About 6 per cent of young men who had left school early were likely to die before the age of 35, and about 2 per cent of young women. This compares with a rate of under 1 per cent for those with a degree. In other words, a young man who had left school early was more than six times more likely to die before age 35 than a college graduate. A young woman who dropped out of school was more than twice as likely to die before 35 as a person with a third-level qualification.

Education, through its effects on lifestyle and income, clearly has a positive impact on life expectancy. It may also be picking up the impact of social class.

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However, lack of education alone is probably not the main reason for shorter lives for early school leavers. As widespread early school leaving had fallen significantly by 2006, it is likely that the minority who continued to drop out of school early included many young people experiencing significant social problems in their lives.

Examples could be mental health challenges, family breakdown, problem drug use, or experience of abuse. Such social problems could be a cause of early dropout from school, as well as a contributory factor in earlier deaths.

Excess deaths in young male early school leavers were mainly due to risky behaviour and suicide, rather than to illness. Mental health problems undoubtedly played a role in suicide rates. But there is also evidence of a much higher propensity for risk-taking among these young men, reflected in a high number of deaths from such behaviour, including traffic fatalities.

The improvement for the 20-34 age group was even more striking. From 129 road deaths for this age group in 2007, mainly of young men, the figure had fallen to 19 by 2019

Thankfully, since these data were collected in 2006, there has been a significant reduction in deaths from traffic incidents. Between 2007 and 2019, overall road deaths were cut by three-quarters.

The improvement for the 20-34 age group was even more striking. From 129 road deaths for this age group in 2007, mainly of young men, the figure had fallen to 19 by 2019. It’s unlikely that a reduction on this scale was due just to improved engineering, or better educational attainment. Rather, the main factor is probably a dramatic reduction in risk-taking behaviour in this cohort of younger men.

Attitudes to drink-driving have obviously changed for the better over this period. However, it would be valuable to conduct research as to why there has been such a big decline in risk-taking behaviour on the road, especially by young men.

It is also worthwhile to analyse the granular detail on what has caused each traffic accident giving rise to deaths, to identify what needs to change

The Government is considering changes in regulation on speed limits, and other measures in the light of the rise in road tragedies, in order to reverse the recent rise in road deaths.

Such measures will undoubtedly have some impact. It is also worthwhile to analyse the granular detail on what has caused each traffic accident giving rise to deaths, to identify what needs to change.

However, probably the most important thing to understand is what causes risk-taking behaviour among drivers, and how best can that be reduced, by examining what gave rise to the progress achieved between 2007 and 2019.