Central Bank unlikely to switch off TV sales

In the last year the only durable goods item in my household that hasn't been either replaced or repaired is the washing machine. And, given that it takes a timely kick in exactly the right spot to open its door, it probably won't be too long before I'm pounding the aisles of electrical superstores again.

The hi-fi, the video, the vacuum cleaner and the dishwasher all succumbed to the end of their warranties and gave up the ghost in the last few months and the latest victim was the TV.

In fairness to the old model, it lasted a stunning 12 years and, until it finally flickered and died, gave a stalwart performance. However, since its demise coincided with the holiday weekend, I felt that I had to replace it straight away. I'm the kind of person who likes the TV droning on in the background even if I'm not watching it. I think it comes of working in an environment which is dominated by flickering, changing screens. The one time I spent a couple of weeks in an office without a monitor, I felt as though my lifeline to the world had been severed.

I've decided that I'm becoming more tolerant as I get older - I didn't snap at the bloke (who looked to me like he was 13 but was probably at least twentythree) in the store who asked me if I was sure I knew what size TV I wanted.

The problem was that I was requesting a small screen model and, surrounded as we were by in-home cinema systems with sophisticated sound systems to wake up the neighbours, the small screen option was not favoured by the sales assistant.

He checked the computer to find out if one in the size I wanted was available and there were two left in stock. Only when he rang the stock department, there weren't. Nothing like technology to keep you on top of your game. However, there were some in the Liffey Valley branch so off we went to join the queue of people trying to exit the M50. We were lucky, by the time we were coming back, the queue extended back to the toll booths.

Anyway, durable goods sales with or without me were booming on Good Friday. I know that 20 years ago I wouldn't have been able to buy chewing gum on Good Friday, let alone a television, but in the still vibrant economy that is the Republic, nobody is going to close their doors on the intrepid shopper no matter what day of the week it is.

For the sake of research I dropped into Marks & Spencer out in Liffey Valley too. There's been a lot of talk about changes in direction for M&S since I first decided that their brand quality was declining fast, but so far nothing seems to have changed that much. The clothes are still dull although I decided to do the weekly grocery shop there since I couldn't face the local supermarket.

We'd loaded up the trolley when the man in my life remarked that there was nothing in it that wasn't pre-packaged. I had a crisis of conscience about spending the same amount of money on a small tray of "prepared" potatoes as a whole bag of unprepared ones. Thing is though, when there are only two of you, the remainder of the whole bag is forgotten and weeks later you discover them sprouting away in the polythene bag like some revolting character from a Stephen King novel.

The pre-packaged shopping came to pretty much the same as my normal shopping bill although I wasn't collecting points for my loyalty card. Or market research for the supermarket, depending on which way you look at it.

When I eventually got home and we unpacked the TV, it took the rest of the day to end up with the same channels on the video as the television. If you remember, it took me hours to get the same channels on the video and TV when I first bought the video.

The new TV automatically placed channels at different slots. First I had to exchange them all to the places I wanted. Then I had to do it all again on the video. I know there must be an easier way than sitting on the floor surrounded by remote controls and co-axial cables. But I couldn't figure out what it was.

The helpful explanatory booklet was complete gibberish. I haven't tried to video anything yet, but I'm sure when I do it'll be Eurosport 9 a.m. instead of a blockbuster movie at 9 p.m.

The Central Bank will, no doubt, be uneasy about the number of shoppers spending money over the holiday weekend. In its first spring bulletin under the ECB regime, it noted that the economy was in "amazingly good shape".

The double-edged sword of an amazing economy at home amid the moribund economies of the rest of Europe isn't lost on the Central Bank and it continues to worry about house prices and wage increases adding to the risk of inflation.

Obviously it would love to tighten rates and that's the last thing that's going to happen right now. Mr Michael Casey, the assistant director general, noted that cheap funds and explosive growth were the kind of nightmare scenario that economies just can't contain forever and he also said that he'd be surprised if interest rates were to fall in the near future across the euro zone. I hope Mr Casey likes surprises.

The ECB's growth forecasts for the rest of Europe have been scaled back since its predictions six months ago. Then it suggested growth of 2.6 per cent, now it's suggesting 2.2 per cent, although many independent economists think it can be even lower. Predictions for Germany are at 1.7 per cent, Italy at 1.6 per cent and France at 2.3 per cent.

However, its forecast for the "amazingly good shape" economy is a dramatic 9.3 per cent! The ECB has also scaled back its inflation forecast to 1.2 per cent from 1.6 per cent for this year.

And the GDP number doesn't even take into account the fact that I'll probably be buying another washing machine before very long.

Sheila O'Flanagan is a fixed-income specialist at NCB Stockbrokers