The Springboks’ lack of recent games gives the Lions a fighting chance of a first Test success

SO SCHALK Willem Petrus Burger Junior will be absent today and so too will Stephen Ferris. What a pity, because today’s Test would be a humdinger for them both.

This week it’s been impossible to predict with confidence the outcome of today’s first Test.

Firstly, the Springboks are world champions but have been in hiding for weeks now and, regardless of their pedigree, they can’t expect to be any way close to their best, especially with the ferocity that will accompany the fixture. I know muscle has a memory but four weeks’ absence is a very, very long time. In that time they will have been utilising their spare 15 players in mimicking the opposition.

So for weeks there will have been a South African Brian O’Driscoll, Paul O’Connell, Gethin Jenkins and co all running typical lines in an effort to prepare the Springboks. However the real thing will prove much more elusive, particularly when fatigue sets in – as it will due to the recent lack of matches.This has to swing the advantage towards the Lions.

Furthermore, Peter de Villiers, as predicted, has been forced into accommodating two hookers in the frontrow, where both Bismarck Wilhelm du Plessis and their captain John Smit have played both hooker and prop for South Africa. Du Plessis will dominate his opposite man, Lee Mears, but two hookers in the South Africa frontrow will weaken their scrum, which is a very European area of emphasis; advantage Gethin Jenkins.

Tom Croft’s inclusion will balance the lineout advantages on both sides, with the exception of du Plessis throwing where Smit has generously embraced the tighthead role entirely, although he is clearly the more accurate out of touch. The big question remains will the Lions opt to keep the ball out of touch, minimising Victor Matfield’s and Bakkies Botha’s influence but inviting JP Peterson and Habana on themselves? As stated before, Mears will have only thrown a dozen balls in live combat to O’Connell, Alun-Wyn Jones and Croft.

Tactically, the Lions will want to corral the Springboks near the touchline, allowing Brian O’Driscoll the space to get Lee Byrne into the outside channel. They will do this by utilising Jamie Roberts’ hard running, which will cause consternation and then elect for the rewind down the blind side.

I expect Mike Phillips to carry back against the grain several times in the opening 20 minutes. At full flight the O’Driscoll-Byrne axis will be hard to stop, particularly for a rusty Springbok defence. However, Phillips may lack the dexterity to prise open the fringe defence.

The series thus far has produced several classic Shaun Edwards defensive systems. It appears the Lions scrumhalf has a roving role in defence at the breakdowns. Traditionally the scrumhalf stays in the neutral zone behind the ruck, providing a reserve, but Phillips joins the line, which is dangerous with Petrus Du Preez sniffing around.

All six fixtures have brought their challenges. Poor attendances is an obvious one. Others have been the unpredictable nature of the hosts. The major challenge for today is the Lions’ performance at the breakdown. For various reasons I’ve become a keen student of the technique that renders advantage to certain styles.

Take Richie McCaw, who has been the forerunner of this style, dominating the breakdown single-handedly. His natural strength affords him a real advantage, but it’s his technique of swinging in from the off side over the ball six inches off the ground that prevents any chance of a steal. Once he locks into this position, as Heinrich Brüssow will do today, no amount of grunt will shift him.

And it’s because of this technique the Lions have been struggling at the breakdown. Clearly the starting pack against the Southern Kings were monsters, with Joe Worsley at 6ft 5in and almost 18 stone the smallest. And yet they turned over countless balls at key moments.

So where is it going wrong? It can’t be lack of bulk. It is in fact their over-reliance on brute strength that will be their undoing. Too often the Lions have relied on the ability to outmuscle the opposition to cover a lack of individual technique. In Europe this group of players have the physical ability to pulverise at the breakdown thereby neutralising the need for technique. This simply won’t work tomorrow.

As always, the ability to keep the ball out of contact will ease the turnovers but failing that, a much more aggressive and quicker support runner at extremely low heights will be required to free the ball. David Wallace may have to sacrifice his ball-carrying for the breakdown showdown but he’ll need a lot of help too.

There are too many unknowns to be confident the Springboks, as favourites, will win. I’ll be keeping a very close eye on scrumhalves Phillips and Du Preez, props Jenkins and Smit and number eights Heaslip and Spies. Spies at 6ft 4in and 17 stone can run 100 metres in under 11 seconds. What a test for the Lions!