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Inside Politics: ‘Constituency redraws can be career-making or career-breaking’

A big day for politicians as they await recommendations from the Electoral Commission for changes to the make-up of constituencies

Population growth, combined with the constitutional requirement to have a TD for every 20-30,000 people, means there will be between 11 and 21 new seats created in the Dáil. Photograph: Bryan O Brien

Pat Leahy's face
Pat Leahy
Wed Aug 30 2023 - 07:09

Welcome to a special edition of the Inside Politics Morning Digest. Normally, the digest is sent out only when the Dáil is sitting. But today is a big day for politicians as they await the recommendations of the Electoral Commission for changes to the make-up of the constituencies.

In fact, it’s fair to say that this is by some distance the most important day of the summer for politicians, as the changes recommended by the Electoral Commission today will have a direct bearing on their chances of election. For some, the news will be bad, with changes making their path to election much more difficult; for others, it will give them a huge boost. “Constituency redraws can be career-making or career-breaking,” one senior politico said yesterday. Once the commission publishes its report this morning, they will dive into it to see whether they are winners or losers.

Population growth, combined with the constitutional requirement to have a TD for every 20-30,000 people, means that there will be between 11 and 21 new seats created by the boundary review – the biggest shake-up of Dáil constituencies in decades. But where will they go? A lot will go to Dublin and the east, where population growth has been the highest, but there will be new seats all across the country. And while more seats offers more possibilities for politicians to get elected, many will live in fear that changes to their constituencies could leave them out in the cold. For instance, it is widely expected that some five-seat constituencies will be split into two three-seaters. But the arithmetic of a five-seater is completely dif a three-seater. Boundary changes, which move districts from one constituency to another further complicate the picture. The bottom line is that this is a very nervy day for everyone.. who’d be a politician?

The new commission, set up by statute to oversee all aspects of elections and referendums, will issue its report at 8am this morning, kicking off a furious scramble by politicians and parties to decide whether they are winners or losers from the recommended changes.

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The recommended changes are virtually certain to be approved by the Government and be implemented before the next election, which must take place by March 2025 but is expected by many politicians to happen at some stage next year.

Here is Cormac McQuinn’s five things to watch out for.

Meanwhile, Minister for Finance Michael McGrath says he doesn’t favour changing the constitutional limits.

Here’s Cormac’s in-depth look at the commission’s work, published at the weekend.

How does it look on the ground? Here are reports from Carlow-Kilkenny; Wicklow; Meath; and Dublin.

They’ll all know soon enough. We’ll have live coverage running from 8am in irishtimes.com

Elsewhere this morning, our front page features that late breaking news from last night of another road tragedy in Tipperary, where an infant boy and two grandparents were killed.

Minister for Media Catherine Martin says RTÉ’s long-term funding is a question that will not be settled until next year.

And the FAI has decided it won’t renew the contract of the women’s team manager, Vera Pauw.