INSIDE POLITICS: Ahern is fulfilling a useful function for FF presently, since so much political/media time is consumed by tribunal appearances, writes Mark Hennessy.
CHARLES J HAUGHEY finally forced his enemies into action when he mused on a Sunday radio programme about Chinese leaders staying on in power until their dotage. One wonders if Bertie Ahern has sown any similar seeds in the minds of Fianna Fáil colleagues, following his indications on Wednesday that he might stay until 2012.
For a man who has had a bad week, Ahern appeared remarkably upbeat to judge by television shots during his travels in central and eastern Europe this week.
In the current climate, anywhere is probably better than home, even for someone as wedded as he is to his Drumcondra base.
Despite last week's disclosure about his former partner, Celia Larkin, and the house, Fianna Fáil does not want to remove him, and certainly not because others say so. Instead, they remain willing for him to pick the time of his own departure, still convinced that his tribunal tribulations are not hurting the party.
And they were happier still by Wednesday lunchtime, after Brian Cowen had floored Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny in the Dáil.
Cowen took a while to warm up, though. In Tuesday's encounter, he first had to lambaste Fine Gael for its past tax misdemeanours before he got around to defending the Taoiseach. And his defence sounds better than it reads. For instance, Cowen never said that he believed the Taoiseach. If the man said it, it must be true, was as far as he went.
Nevertheless, he did more than enough to calm any tensions that existed among backbenchers, particularly because of the ease with which he fended off Kenny.
The backbenchers are still chuckling about the way in which he played divide and rule with Fine Gael and Labour, offering, as he did, plaudits to Eamon Gilmore.
Indeed, Kenny may be the week's big loser, because some of his own worry that the Dáil exchanges showed that he will not be able to handle Cowen if and when he replaces Ahern.
In truth, he did well enough on Tuesday to highlight Cowen's reluctance to give full-blooded backing to Ahern, but he was flat-footed the following day.
The confidence that FF TDs feel in Cowen's ability versus Kenny - that everything will be all right when change comes - means that they can afford to offer extra latitude to the Taoiseach. Indeed, it can be argued that Ahern is fulfilling a useful function for FF presently, since so much political/media time is being consumed by his tribunal appearances.
Voters always get irritated in the year after an election. This year, they are more irritated than usual. Yet, so far, it is not expressing itself in disastrous polling figures for FF.
If Ahern's financial affairs were not top of the agenda then autism, the economy, crime and a host of other issues would fill the vacuum instead.
Thankful for three terms in power, FF TDs would prefer Ahern to leave with dignity - though even they will baulk at 2012. But, for now, they accept that he cannot put a date on it, and they doubt that the Taoiseach has ever privately offered assurances to Cowen on this point. Even if he has, few of them would believe him. Neither would Cowen.
The Houses of Congress speech in late April offers a natural break, but Ahern does not want to leave office then, or, it would seem, for a lot longer afterwards.
However bad it has been for him up to now, it can be reasoned that he believes he is still better off going into Dublin Castle as Taoiseach, rather than as a former one. One of the keys to understanding Ahern - in so far as mortals are able - is to realise that he has always set short-term targets that occupy the agenda and offer a reason for being.
Once Washington is out of the way, one will start to hear from his supporters a greater focus on the May economic summit in Belfast.
Everyone, even enemies, accept that he is due Washington. Afterwards, it will be said - not unfairly either - that he should be around to mark the Belfast Agreement's 10th anniversary. Once that is out of the way, the argument will turn to the Lisbon Treaty, and that FF should not preoccupy itself with leadership issues while so important a matter remains outstanding. Such plans could be upset if opinion polls start to show that the treaty is in trouble, especially if Ahern's continued presence is part of the problem.
Altogether, that is a lot of ifs, buts and maybes - and all such permutations go out of the window if there is much more to come from Mahon, as it most likely will.
In addition, there is the matter of Fianna Fáil's national collection in middle/late May, where local cumainn will taste the local winds.
Nevertheless, if the treaty runs into trouble - and it may not, even though there is a lot of nervousness around - then pressure will mount for action. But action does not require a dethroning. Instead, Ahern could fade into the background and the Minister for Finance would lead the campaign.
In such a circumstance, the message to the Fianna Fáil heartland will be clear: Cowen is your future leader. Will you let him down when he calls for a Yes vote? But if the EU treaty could only be won in such circumstances with Cowen at the helm, then what is the point of having Ahern in the top job? The difficulty for Cowen is that he is not the only one who would rise in the post-Ahern era, because close allies will expect to rise with him, and impatience will grow.
If Ahern survives into next year - the year when most thought up to now that he would go - then the local elections loom large.
In 2004, FF had their worst-ever council results, and few in the party believe that they are going to do worse next year. If - and this is difficult to see from this juncture - Ahern leads them into it, and FF does okay, then he may see it as a vindication, and an argument that he should stay on longer.
If so, the patience of even accommodating FF TDs will wane, and the text of Haughey's Chinese leaders' remark will then definitely be by the bedside lamp.
Mark Hennessy is Political Correspondent. Stephen Collins is on leave.