Hollande’s political future is likely to be decided by the economy, not his affair

Will "l'affaire Gayet" damage François Hollande's presidency? Probably not. For one thing, his popularity hit rock bottom before his affair with actor Julie Gayet, 18 years his junior, was revealed by Closer magazine last week.

With approval ratings as low as 18 per cent in recent weeks, Hollande could hardly become more unpopular.

"The French are interested, amused, even shocked" by Hollande's affair, says Hervé Algalarrondo, deputy editor of Nouvel Observateur magazine.

“But it doesn’t change what they think. They base their vote on other criteria, on jobs and the economy.”

Valérie Trierweiler, the first lady who was Hollande’s companion for nine years, is the wild card. She has been hospitalised since refusing to sign a communique announcing the couple’s separation.

Known for her volatile, unpredictable temperament, Trierweiler could yet do or say something that endangers Hollande’s – already poor – chances of re-election.

Second term
At a marathon press conference on Tuesday, Hollande made it clear he intended to seek a second term, repeating five times that his goals were for 2017, the election year: "When there's an economic crisis and high unemployment, people blame the head of state.

“I’m doing all I can to bring unemployment down over the long haul. We’ll see what my popularity rating is at the end of my term.”

In other words, if Hollande can turn the economy around, all will be forgiven.

Perception of his swerve towards a liberal economic policy was blurred by fascination with his love triangle, but the dramatic change in policy balanced negative fallout from l'affaire Gayet.

Christine Boutin, president of the Christian Democratic Party, represented the moral right when she told i-Télé that Hollande had revealed his true character. “He’s a manipulator, a hypocrite, a man who is incredibly cruel towards women.”

Childish behaviour
Riding a motor scooter to his assignations with Gayet, disguised by a helmet, was childish, not presidential, Boutin said. His treatment of Trierweiler was "a real scandal".

The affair has damaged Hollande's image by showing him to be naive, sloppy and careless. In the age of smartphones, internet and social networks, the French leader seemed to believe he could be like François Mitterrand, who hid his secret family for 13 years. "How did he fail to realise what a risk he was taking?" Gérard Courtois asked in Le Monde. "It defies comprehension." LARA MARLOWE