SENIOR Ulster Unionists appear confident that Mr John Major is set to favour their proposal for a 90 member elected forum as the route to all party negotiations in the North. However, there were indications at Westminster last night that the British government is considering a "hybrid" electoral system - combining elements of a constituency based election and a "party list" system.
A British government decision on the nature of the elective process is expected to be announced later this week. The British Prime Minister will preside over a meeting of his cabinet's Northern Ireland Committee later today. And Mr Major will have telephone discussions with the Taoiseach Mr Bruton, before finalising the terms of his announcement.
Under the terms of last month's Anglo Irish communique, the absence of agreement between the parties will leave it for the British government to bring forward legislation based on its own judgment of the system most likely to command broad acceptance.
However, it is understood London has not yet received full assurances from all the parties that they will not withdraw from the talks if the elective process chosen does not accord with their preferred model.
While the SDLP and the DUP favour holding elections on a single Northern Ireland constituency, and the operation of a party list system, Mr David Trimble, the UUP leader, had been fighting a campaign among Conservative MPs at Westminster to determine the final outcome. It is believed Lord Cranbourne, Tory leader in the House of Lords, will press Mr Trimble's case at today's meeting of the cabinet committee.
And senior Ulster Unionists last night appeared convinced the British government would finally decide in favour of a forum - with five members elected by, single transferable vote in each of the 18 Westminster constituencies - which would operate in parallel with the all party negotiations, due to begin on June 10th. This is the "Option C" outlined in the third of the consultative papers, issued by the British government on March 8th, and published on this page today.
Under this formula, the elected forum - without intervening in the condition of the negotiations - would meet on a regular basis, possibly on specified days when, no all party negotiations were taking place.
The published paper suggests a primary function of the forum might be to conduct hearings at which public submissions could be made by community, voluntary, women's and youth groups, trades unions, business and professional organisations, the churches, academics etc." While the forum might sit normally in Belfast, it could also convene in other major centres in Northern Ireland.
The forum might establish committees to consider "specific issues, such as social and economic questions, cross community reconciliation, parity of esteem and treatment and aspects of human rights". Membership and chairmanships would be allocated on a proportional basis. Reports would be adopted by consensus. And the committees, or the forum as a whole, "might commission specialist studies on relevant topics, and, where appropriate, examine best international practice in relevant areas".
This is in stark contrast to "Option A", in which there would be no elected forum as such. Under this scheme, more likely to be favoured by the SDLP, the Northern Ireland representatives or a selection of them would participate in the substantive negotiations "but would have no independent institutional expression".
Other senior Westminster sources agree that these consultation papers on the form of elections and role of an elected body appear couched in terms sympathetic to the Ulster Unionist blueprint.
Of the alternative electoral models, for example, it is said, that legislation for the preferred UUP system would require simple updating of existing legislation - "the drafting task should be relatively straightforward". But, of the proposal for a party list system, the paper observes. Since there is no enacted precedent for a list system in the United Kingdom, a significant amount of new legislation would be required.
Provision would have to be made for the "registration" of political parties, including for a way to rapidly resolve disputes about party descriptions. And "a substantial advertising and voter education effort" would be required, although the decision by the voter would, in the end be simpler than under STV, since he or she would only be required to express one preference.
Of the argument that a list system would favour smaller parties, the paper says the distribution of parties electoral support is a significant factor: "If a relatively low level of support is evenly spread across the electoral region then small parties could benefit but if it is concentrated in specific areas, then there may be no advantage, or even some disadvantage, for smaller parties, compared with STV in 18 constituencies."
However, the March 8th paper on electoral models committed the British government to consider any alternative approach, "for example, one which might combine elements of both approaches". While the government had not been able to identify a practical third alternative, it declared itself happy to consider any such scheme "urgently and constructively".
And there were signals last night that, possibly under some pressure from the Labour Party, the British government was seeking a middle road between the preferred options of the SDLP and DUP on the one hand, and the Ulster Unionists on the other.
It is understood the Labour Party, in discussion with the British government, has so far refused to commit itself in favour of any one of the canvassed options. And it is reported that British ministers, in talks with some of the Northern Ireland parties in the past week, have expressed anxiety about securing Labour's support for any scheme finally decided.
This was further fuelling last night's speculation that a "hybrid" electoral system might emerge in which some members of the forum would be elected directly and others drawn from a party list.
British government sources last night insisted that they had not yet fixed a date in May for elections, while indicating that the elections and any referendum along the lines proposed by Mr John Hume, the SDLP leader - would most likely be held on the same day.