MIDDLE EAST: Armed Palestinian groups recovered quickly from Operation Defensive Shield, writes Peter Hirschberg.
As Israel wound up its broad military offensive in the West Bank at the end of April, a cautious but clearly satisfied Prime Minister, Mr Ariel Sharon, gave a series of interviews to local and international media in which he outlined the accomplishments of Israel's strike at the Palestinian "terror infrastructure."
Israel's Defence Minister, Mr Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, also took to the airwaves, saying the militant groups had been badly mauled.
Initially, it appeared the two men were right: almost throughout the month-long operation, and in the days immediately after, the suicide-bombers, who had visited mayhem inside Israel on an almost daily basis, disappeared. Israelis breathed a little easier. Some even began returning to the nightspots they had deserted en masse after these became the bombers' favoured targets. But the respite was fleeting, and the effect of the blow Israel's military planners said they had delivered to the Palestinian militia groups rapidly waned. The suicide car-bombing at the Megiddo Junction in northern Israel yesterday, in which 17 Israelis were killed, was the fifth attack inside Israel in just over three weeks. It brought the number of Israelis killed in attacks since the army ended its massive West Bank incursion to 36.
Even hard-line ministers conceded yesterday that armed Palestinian groups had recovered quickly from Operation Defensive Shield, as the army called its West Bank offensive. But the Education Minister, Ms Limor Livnat, of the ruling Likud party, insisted yesterday the answer was more force, in the form of an order to Israel's military to reinvade Palestinian-controlled areas and remain there for an unspecified period of time - a move that would significantly reverse the process of ending Israel's occupation of the West Bank, set in motion by the Oslo peace accords signed in 1993.
This is one option open to Mr Sharon. It is favoured by the head of Israel's Shin Bet secret service, Mr Avi Dichter, who told the cabinet earlier this week that the army should not leave Palestinian areas until security buffer zones, including a fence, had been established between Israel and the West Bank.
At the meeting, Mr Sharon rejected the idea, saying the army would continue with the mode of operation it has adopted since the end of Defensive Shield: almost daily raids and sweeps for Palestinian militants in West Bank towns and villages. But in the wake of the Megiddo attack - and if more occur - the prime minister might well reconsider his position.
Since Mr Sharon has ruled out any talks with the Palestinians as long as the violence continues, the military option still remains his favoured course of action. He has to decide whether to stick to the daily forays into Palestinian areas, or launch Defensive Shield II. The latter, however, might entail a much longer occupation of Palestinian cities. Such a move would surely draw intense international criticism, would further deepen Palestinian bitterness - and the pool of potential suicide-bombers - and like the first operation, may only achieve a temporary calm.
But Mr Sharon has enjoyed almost unprecedented public backing since he launched the military operation in late March in response to a wave of Palestinian suicide attacks, and his popularity rating is remarkably high in a country that for years was split over the issue of territorial compromise. That divide has largely melted away since the Palestinian uprising began and Israelis lost faith in Mr Yasser Arafat.
Not that Mr Sharon has ever had any. He recently gloated about the fact that he was the only Israeli prime minister not to have shaken hands with Mr Arafat since Oslo was signed, and he has toyed with expelling Mr Arafat from the territories.
President George Bush, who has barely hidden his dislike for the Palestinian leader, gave Israel an almost free hand in its April offensive, and the Americans have hinted to Mr Arafat that they might do that again if he did not try to end the violence. Some of the prime minister's aides have suggested in the past that in Mr Arafat's absence, a more moderate Palestinian leadership might fill the vacuum. But there is no guarantee that will happen, nor that any leadership that emerges in Mr Arafat's wake will be ready, or able, to make concessions for peace. With Mr Sharon scheduled to meet Mr Bush in Washington on Tuesday, he may, however, choose to refrain from launching a major military strike in the coming days, or from evicting Mr Arafat.