Sinn Féin support has fallen significantly for the first time since the Northern Bank robbery and the killing of Belfast man Robert McCartney, with approval of the performance of Gerry Adams dropping to its lowest since first measured three years ago, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll.
Party support in the State has slipped to 9 per cent, down two points since January and three points since an Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll last October, before the Northern Bank raid became the first of a series of events which has put Sinn Féin under the greatest pressure since the peace process began.
The state of the parties is: Fianna Fáil 38 per cent, unchanged since the last Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll in January; Fine Gael 22 per cent, unchanged; Labour 12 per cent, down 1; Sinn Féin 9 per cent, down 2; Green Party 4 per cent, unchanged; Progressive Democrats 3 per cent, down 1; Independents and Others 12 per cent, up 4.
The core support for the parties is: Fianna Fáil 36 per cent, unchanged since January; Fine Gael 17 per cent, unchanged; Labour 9 per cent, down 1; Sinn Féin 7 per cent, down 2; Green Party 3 per cent, unchanged; Progressive Democrats 3 per cent, unchanged; Others 10 per cent, up 3; Undecided 17 per cent, up 1.
The poll was taken last Monday and Tuesday, February 28th and March 1st, among a national quota sample of 1,000 voters throughout all constituencies in the State. It comes after an extraordinary period of pressure on Sinn Féin and the IRA over the Northern Bank raid, the collapse in December of the Northern Ireland talks, the murder of Robert McCartney, the discovery of a major money-laundering operation in the Republic and the Sinn Féin campaign for the release of the killers of Det Garda Jerry McCabe.
This is reflected in the loss by Sinn Féin of a quarter of its support since October last, although it is still ahead of the 7 per cent support it achieved in the 2002 general election.
Just 30 per cent approve of the performance of Gerry Adams as Sinn Féin leader, a drop of 12 points since January and 21 points since October. Some 52 per cent are dissatisfied with his performance, an increase of 14 points since January, reflecting particularly strong disapproval among supporters of the mainstream parties, while 18 per cent have no opinion, down two points.
The poll brings good news for the Government, Fianna Fáil and the Taoiseach, showing them sustaining the substantial recovery in support that has been under way since last year's local government and European Parliament elections.
While there have been marginal falls in approval of the Government and the Taoiseach, their ratings remain substantially higher than in the two years after the 2002 general election.
Some 51 per cent are satisfied with the Government, down one point since the last poll in January; 42 per cent are dissatisfied, up two, with 7 per cent having no opinion.
A majority, 58 per cent, approve of the way Bertie Ahern is doing his job as Taoiseach, a fall of two points since January. Some 36 per cent are dissatisfied, up three, with 6 per cent having no opinion, down 1.
The Tánaiste's personal satisfaction rating has fallen seven points to 47 per cent, possibly reflecting the controversy over the illegal charging of medical-card holders residing in State-run institutions. Some 44 per cent are dissatisfied with Mary Harney's performance, up nine points, and 9 per cent have no opinion, down three points.
While Fine Gael's support remains unchanged at 22 per cent, approval of Enda Kenny's performance as party leader has risen one point to 45 per cent. Some 28 per cent are dissatisfied with his performance, up two points and 27 per cent have no opinion, down three.
Labour's marginal drop in support by one point to 12 per cent is accompanied by a four-point fall to 45 per cent in the approval rating of its leader, Pat Rabbitte. Some 28 per cent are dissatisfied with his performance, up three points, and 27 per cent have no opinion, up one.
Finally 35 per cent are satisfied with the performance of Trevor Sargent as Green Party leader, up two points.
Some 25 per cent are dissatisfied with his performance, up three points, and 40 per cent have no opinion, down five points.
