MIDDLE EAST:Bush's reluctance to engage in the region's peace process opens the way for others, writes Michael Jansen
THE BUSH administration's prosecution of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and its preoccupation with Iran's nuclear programme have left a political vacuum in the Middle East which has compelled world and local powers to mediate negotiations and secure balanced agreements on key problems.
Instead of ratcheting up tensions or fighting, political pundit Rami Khouri has written, now "everyone is negotiating".
Last week, the Bush administration was itself persuaded by other permanent Security Council members and Germany to take part in talks with Iran on its nuclear programme, although Tehran has refused to suspend uranium enrichment, Washington's precondition for dialogue.
Participation of the state department's third man, William Burns, in the talks was the first high-level contact since the overthrow of the shah in 1979. Furthermore, experts on US-Iran relations say that Washington is considering opening an interest section in Tehran, thereby re-establishing a diplomatic presence there for the first time in nearly 30 years.
Ankara has offered to facilitate dialogue.
This breakthrough was preceded by the Hizbullah-Israeli prisoner swap mediated by a German intelligence agent, Ernest Uhrlau, who brokered a larger exchange in 2004.
Hizbullah received five live Lebanese prisoners and the bodies of 199 Palestinian and other fighters in exchange for the bodies of two Israeli soldiers killed during a cross-border Hizbullah raid in 2006.
While easing Israel's anguish over its fallen soldiers, the deal boosted Hizbullah's standing in Lebanon and the Arab world and at least temporarily strengthened the country's fragile unity.
French president Nicolas Sarkozy facilitated the rehabilitation of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, by inviting him to attend the Mediterranean Union summit in Paris on July 13th and the Bastille Day parade the next day.
Assad had been ostracised by the West because of his alleged complicity in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik al-Hariri.
Syria, involved with Israel in Turkish-mediated negotiations over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, has offered to promote reconciliation between Iran and the western powers and to encourage Palestinian dissidents to go along with peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Whether or not anyone takes up the offers from Damascus, Syria has been reinstated as a member of the international community. By conducting indirect talks between Syria and Israel, Ankara has bolstered its standing.
Egypt brokered the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. The period of quiet has granted legitimacy to Hamas - labelled as a "terrorist organisation" by the US and Israel - halted Israeli attacks on and raids in Gaza, and restored security for Israelis living in cities and settlements near the border with the Strip.
Hamas has threatened to pull out of the ceasefire if Israel does not open crossings to allow shipments of building materials, consumer goods and equipment into Gaza.
But it has, instead, arrested militants preparing to fire rockets into Israel.
For both parties, the ceasefire is, so far, a win-win deal.
The Doha accord brokered in May by Qatar between Lebanon's western-backed ruling coalition and Hizbullah-led opposition brought about the election of army chief Michel Suleiman as president, and the formation of a national unity government.
A similar deal proposed by the Arab League and France could have been reached at the end of 2007 if the Bush administration had not urged the government, led by prime minister Fouad Siniora, to reject opposition demands.
Qatar's mediation was undertaken only after Hizbullah defeated pro-government militiamen in street fighting, threatening to plunge Lebanon into a third civil war.
Hizbullah's terms were met in the Doha deal, but Siniora remains premier and his coalition partners retain a majority in parliament.
In these cases, the Bush administration has had to drop opposition to arrangements which ran counter to its policies. Commentators suggest the administration's lame-duck status has made it too weak to object or attempt to dictate terms.
While these deals are important for the stability of the region, none of the brokers involved is in a position to take over from the Bush administration as facilitator in the faltering talks between Palestinians and Israelis.
The refusal of the administration to follow the example of its predecessor and become seriously engaged in this, the core regional peace process, may have, in the view of influential Arab and Israeli analysts, finished off the so-called "two-state solution".
This involves the creation of a Palestinian state to coexist with Israel within the borders of geographic Palestine. It is expected that the Bush administration will leave this problem to its successor.