THE US House of Representatives has scheduled a debate and vote on healthcare legislation starting at 1pm eastern standard time tomorrow (6pm GMT).
Congressional sources predict the Bill, which has been the centrepiece of president Barack Obama’s domestic policy, is likely to pass by the evening.
The speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, and other Democratic leaders have abandoned hope of obtaining Republican votes, and are struggling to persuade reluctant members of their own party to vote Yes.
Estimates of the final roll call varied wildly yesterday. The Los Angeles Times said the Democrats were only six votes short of the 216 they need.
MSNBC television said they needed five more votes, but CNN reported the majority party still lacked 30 Yes votes.
Wall Street analysts said there was an 80 per cent chance of the Bill passing, but sources on Capitol Hill stressed it would be extremely close.
Asked how he would celebrate a victory, one Democratic Congressman said he would go home to his district on the east coast and attempt to explain his vote.
Polls show that only 38 per cent of the US population favour the Bill, while 48 per cent oppose it.
Once the Bill clears the House, the changes to the text approved by the Senate on December 24th must then be approved in the Senate.
Democrats should be able to attain the simple majority of 51 votes required by the “reconciliation” procedure, but they fear Republicans will drag the process out as long as possible with objections and amendments.
If passed, the Bill will cost $940 billion (€694 billion) over the next decade, and extend medical insurance to 32 million Americans, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
The CBO said 95 per cent of Americans would then have access to healthcare.
This would be achieved by expanding Medicaid (government-provided healthcare for the poor), and by providing tax credits to 24 million Americans who would not otherwise be able to afford it.
Americans who fail to insure themselves would pay a penalty, which would start at $325 for an individual in 2015, rising to $695 in 2016.
Companies employing more than 30 people would have to pay $2,000 a year for each employee they failed to cover.
Reimbursement of prescription drugs for the elderly in the Medicare programme would eventually increase to fill the “doughnut hole” where senior citizens must pay out of pocket.
Many of the Bill’s provision will be delayed, including a tax on expensive employer-provided “Cadillac plans”, which would take effect in 2018.
Mr Obama made a last pre-vote speech at George Mason University in Fairfax Virginia yesterday.
“We are going to do something historic this weekend,” he said.
“A few miles from here, Congress is in the final stages of a fateful debate about the future of health insurance in America. It’s a debate that’s raged not just for the past year but for the past century.”
Mr Obama said “the heart of the debate” was “whether we’re going to accept a system that works better for the insurance companies than it does for the American people.”
“It’s a debate that is not only about the cost of healthcare,” he said.
“It’s a debate about the character of our country – about whether we can still meet the challenges of our time; whether we still have the guts and the courage to give every citizen, not just some, the chance to reach their dreams.”