Nato's Isaf troops are facing a year of challenges, writes MARY FITZGERALD, Foreign Correspondent, in Kabul
THE GARDEN within the heavily fortified headquarters of the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) in Kabul, with its gazebos and barbecue, is a world away from the clamour and dust of the Afghan capital and the tumult that lies only a few hours’ drive south where Taliban fighters hold sway.
Sitting at a wooden table in a far corner, Isaf’s deputy commander, Lieut Gen Jim Dutton, reflects on what will be a pivotal year for Afghanistan. Over the next months, some 17,000 extra American troops will arrive as part of US president Barack Obama’s strategy for the region. In August, Afghans will vote in the country’s second presidential election since the Taliban government was ousted in 2001.
Last week, the resurgent Taliban announced a spring offensive, while over the northeastern border, their newly emboldened Pakistani brethren battled with government forces.
This year brings a number of challenges, Lieut-Gen Dutton acknowledges, but he remains upbeat, not least about the situation in Afghanistan’s volatile southern provinces, where most of the extra troops will be deployed.
Isaf’s overall commander, Gen David McKiernan, has described the current situation in the south as one where his forces and the Taliban are locked in a stalemate.
"Neither side can gain a decisive advantage because we don't have sufficient capability to widen and deepen the security we have provided, but clearly neither does the insurgency have the capability to move us out of the areas that we do hold," Dutton tells The Irish Times.
That, he believes, will change when troop levels increase.
“I’m not a betting man but my guess is that by the end of the summer the security situation in the south will be very, very different. That number of troops and 120 extra helicopters is going to transform the situation, with hopefully at least some transformation in time for the elections.”
Asked about concerns that insurgents might strike on or around election day, Dutton replies: “One cannot guarantee that there will not be some events . . . Nato made an assessment almost a year ago of the extra forces that would be required for election security. Those forces, by and large, are now being provided, and will be coming into the country in the next two months, and will stay throughout the electoral process . . . We have a plan which we are confident in, but one can never guarantee that it will be 100 per cent successful.”
On February 11th, a series of raids on government buildings by Taliban suicide bombers and gunmen, widely considered an attempt to replicate last year’s attacks in Mumbai, left Afghan officials jittery and fearful of another insurgent attempt on the capital.
“I have no doubt they are continually planning for a spectacular event in Kabul, but the fact there hasn’t been one for a long time suggests that their capability is not great, and that our – by which I mean the Afghan security forces supported by us – capability to prevent them is pretty good,” says Dutton. “As I remind Afghans who get gloomy about February 11th, it’s less than 20 years ago that the IRA launched mortars into the prime minister’s garden from the north door of the ministry of defence, and we didn’t say London was about to fall to the Irish Republican Army.”
The number of suicide bombings in Afghanistan has increased, but not dramatically so, he says, and the insurgents appear to be opting for “easy wins” in terms of target and type of attack.
“The insurgents have been quick to realise that the kill ratio of an IED [improvised explosive device] is quite high . . . They are a big concern because they are quite an easy win – relatively low-tech, they can be laid very quickly, and if the insurgent is lucky he kills two or three people.”
Ask ordinary Afghans about Isaf’s presence in their country and the reply will invariably be one of complaint about the level of civilian casualties.
According to the UN, last year’s civilian death toll was the highest it has been since the Taliban fell eight years ago, with Nato and Afghan forces responsible for almost 40 per cent of the 2,118 deaths recorded. Most of these were caused by air strikes.
“A single civilian casualty is one too many,” says Dutton, adding that Isaf has set up a tracking unit to determine the number of civilian casualties and who or what caused them. “We do everything we conceivably can and constantly reassess whether we can do anything else to try to minimise civilian casualties.”
Another sensitive issue relates to Isaf’s approach to opium production – the crop that helps bankroll the insurgency is also the only source of income for many ordinary Afghans, and efforts to tackle its cultivation risk breeding resentment.
“We have destroyed an enormous amount of opium,” says Dutton. “One of our aims is to reduce the effect of the narcotics industry to the extent it is no longer a key factor either in funding the insurgency or corruption.”
Dutton admits he is very concerned about the situation in neighbouring Pakistan, where the army last week launched an offensive against the country’s indigenous Taliban despite a recent peace deal, and the impact it might have on Afghanistan. But, he adds, the fact Pakistan’s army has moved against the militants is to be welcomed.
“It is quite clear that the Pakistanis have now realised that they have an internal security problem. They have for some time been in denial about that . . . They have recognised the issue and they are determined to try to do something about it.”
Returning to Afghanistan, Dutton speaks of the “steadfastness” of the international coalition despite evidence of dwindling public support for the mission, particularly in European contributing nations. Isaf now contains troops from 42 countries, including seven members of the Irish Defence Forces.
“We have had political statements from many of our leaders – of great solidarity, of seeing this project through and understanding that security in Afghanistan, and indeed Pakistan, is important to our lives in western Europe as well as South Asia,” he says.
One problem, Dutton argues, is the perception that the security situation here is worsening despite the presence of Isaf.
“The key to this is a demonstration of progress . . . The security situation is not deteriorating . . . It depends how you measure it, and it depends which bit you look at, but it is very different in different areas. Huge swathes of this country never see a security incident and there are others that see far too many.
“Look at Kabul,” he continues. “I drive around this city a lot and it does not feel like a city hugely under threat. It’s thriving. It’s full of people working and buying and selling things. I think there’s lots of hope.”