FG - Labour pact likely to keep FF at bay in Carlow

A former Fianna Fail TD, Mr M.J. Nolan, is attempting to arrest an alarming slide in his fortunes as voters prepare to go to the polls in Carlow.

A Fine Gael-Labour pact has kept Fianna Fail out of the council chair for 10 years, and the party is unlikely to get the two extra seats it needs to give it an overall majority this time.

Mr Nolan faces an uphill task to hold his seat in the most competitive electoral area in the county, and will not be the only high-profile casualty if he fails to make it. The national chairman of the Progressive Democrats, Senator Jim Gibbons, is also battling for a seat.

Both men are competing in Carlow town, which has been divided into two wards, and the outcome in Ward 2 will have a major bearing on the future shape of the county council.

Fine Gael's Mr John Browne, the county's only TD, is a safe bet to hold his seat, but where the other four will go in this five-seat ward is anybody's guess. Mr Nolan scraped through in the 1991 local elections, lost his Dail seat in 1997 and failed to secure a place among the Taoiseach's 11 Seanad nominations.

Unless he arrests that slide he is likely to lose out to party colleagues and councillors Mr Nicholas Carpenter and Mr Rody Kelly. Mr Walter Lacey, a PD councillor with a strong personal vote, is likely to hold his seat, while Labour's Mr Tony O'Sullivan may give the party an extra seat.

Carlow's other three-seat ward is likely to be much more straightforward, with the sitting Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour councillors likely to hold their seats, leaving no room for Senator Gibbons.

An intriguing battle is taking place in Tullow, where Fine Gael is trying to repeat its outstanding 1991 performance, with more than half the vote and three of the five seats. The other two went to Fianna Fail, but Labour's newcomer, Mr William Paton, is running a strong campaign and is likely to be elected.

In Bagenalstown Mr John McNally resigned from the Labour Party following its merger with Democratic Left. He is retiring, and his son, also John, is running as an independent. If he secures even half of his father's first-preference vote, he will be elected. In Borris, reduced from a four to a three-seater, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour are likely to take a seat each.

Rising house prices and Carlow's growing traffic congestion are among the many issues being raised on the doorsteps. But it's personalities rather than policies that are expected to count.