Decision to leave chair makes seats safe

BOUNDARY changes which turned the present four seat Tipperary South constituency into a three seater looked like producing a dogfight. But then came Sean Treacy's decision to retire, and it now looks like the three sitting TDs in the contest will hold their seats.

As Ceann Comhairle Sean Treacy would have been automatically returned and most pundits believe that Labour's Michael Ferris would have been tipped off the bench in what would have technically become a two seater constituency. The Ceann Comhairle's decision to retire smooths the way for the three sitting TDs.

Fine Gael's Theresa Ahern was returned on the third count in 1992 with almost 11,000 first preference votes. She is seen as a hardworking backbencher, and was noted for her contribution to the debate on the hepatitis C scandal.

Noel Davern of Fianna Fail polled 15,163 first preferences. Political observers see him as a bit of a Dail wit, performing on the Order of Business. From a long line of Fianna Fail people, he is expected to top the poll this time.

Michael Ferris polled 8,306 first preferences in 1992, making him the only one of the three to increase his vote on his 1989 showing.

The sitting Fine Gael and Fianna Fail TDs benefit from the grassroots agricultural vote and Michael Ferris is expected to keep his seat because of his constituency work, rather than any particular allegiance by the electorate to the Labour Party. Much of his increase last time round was put down to his constituency work, described by one commentator as "dogged".

So without a marginal seat in sight, the two issues exercising the minds of South Tipp voters seem to be crime and employment.

If the electorate is as gripped with crime hysteria as politicians believe then this is probably the most crime conscious rural constituency.

Last month, two men were convicted of the murder of a Cashel farmer, Danny Fanning, in his home and, more recently, there was a raid on a businessman in Cloneen, during which he and his family were beaten and locked in a shed for 17 hours. Four masked raiders made off with £10,000 and a "large quantity" of cigarettes.

All the parties report crime being the number one issue on the doorsteps. And there is high support for Fianna Fail's "zero tolerance" policy. The party has added county councillor Michael Maguire to the ticket. He is expected to take some votes from Michael Ferris, but not enough to fatally damage the Labour candidate.

The television deflector issue is also a hot topic and Independent candidate Seamus Healy has made it one of his platforms, although he is not standing as a single issue candidate. He is being touted as a strong candidate and is expected to poll strongly around the Clonmel area, where his small election posters dominate.

The National Party candidate, John Harold Barry, a retired vet, is expected to pick up a small number of votes.

Clonmel has prospered in the last three years with property prices rising and Dublin style apartments springing up on the banks of the Suir. The town has been designated for urban renewal tax incentives, much to the chagrin of its Tipp North neighbour, Thurles.

After the painful closure of the Digital plant in Clonmel, employment prospects have improved with the opening of a plant by the computer hardware manufacturer, Seagate, on the old Digital site in 1995.

But memories are long and the Digital blow highlighted to the town the precarious nature of relying on a multinational industry for employment.