THE CHANGING FACE OF MIGRATION:Many migrants' morning routine now consists of scouring the internet and papers for jobs, writes RUADHÁN MAC CORMAIC, Migration Correspondent
AS HE approaches the tenth anniversary of his arrival in Ireland, Malik finds himself more settled and yet more uncertain about his future than ever before.
In April last year, the 38-year-old Malaysian chef took a new job in the midlands because it paid him €50 a week more than his previous one, and his employer told him he would arrange the paperwork for a work permit renewal.
However, he kept delaying and, by last December, business had all but dried up and he let Malik go. His existing permit expired on January 1st, and for the first time since he arrived in Ireland in 2000, Malik found himself without a job. With his current residence permit due to expire in September, he is at risk of becoming undocumented.
Like so many others among Ireland’s newly unemployed, his morning routine now consists of scouring the internet and papers for jobs he suspects he’ll never secure. His difficulties are compounded by a tightening of work permit rules this year. “It’s difficult to find a job . . . When I apply, they ask, ‘Do you need a work permit?’ When I say ‘Yes’, they say ‘We’re not in a position to apply for a work permit.’ Even before the interview. They don’t want the hassle.”
In May, Malik joined dozens of others in a rare march by migrant workers in Dublin to protest against new work permit rules introduced by Minister for Enterprise Mary Coughlan in June. Organised by the Migrant Rights Centre, the demonstrators wore white masks and carried placards that read: “Go home? We are home!”
If he had found himself in his predicament five years ago, Malik says, it wouldn’t have caused him as much concern. But he married in 2005 and the couple have two daughters, aged three and one, as well as a credit union loan and ties to their community in the midlands. “If I was single, no problem. I could no anywhere – I’d just pack my bag. But now I’ve a wife and two small children. My responsibilities are bigger. I can’t just pack up and go.
“After you have lived in a country for a few years, you become part of society. I feel I’m Irish – my child was born here, my everyday life is here . . . It’s not my fault that I lost my job, but it’s like I’m a criminal or something.”
And what will he do if he hasn’t found a job by September? “I don’t know. You live in fear. I cannot go home; I cannot live here. So I’m stuck.”
Many believe that, with unemployment heading for 16 per cent, the Government is justified in tightening work permit rules and that its first responsibility should be to Irish citizens. Announcing the tougher criteria in April, Mary Coughlan acknowledged how Ireland had benefited from immigration in the past decade, but added that the Government had to ensure that migration policies adapted to reflect “changing realities” of the labour market. “Those realities have altered dramatically over recent months. As a result, it is essential that we now take steps to ensure that every possible effort is made by employers to find a suitably skilled employee from within the existing labour market.”
Under the changes, more job categories (including domestic workers and HGV drivers) have become ineligible for new permits, no first-time permits are to be issued for jobs paying under €30,000 a year, and the labour market needs test has been strengthened by doubling the period that a job has to be advertised at Fás to eight weeks. Renewal fees have been raised.
However, critics of the changes allege they were aimed less at addressing problems in the labour market than at giving the impression to an anxious public that the Government was taking action to limit immigration rates.
After all, they point out, work permit holders account for just 1.5 per cent of the labour force, and the number of permits being issued has been falling rapidly, from a peak of 3,693 in July 2007 to just 623 last March.
Whatever the rationale, the attempt to limit the flow of immigrants is in sync with a wider trend, with many governments responding to the economic crisis by reducing quotas for foreign workers and imposing more stringent entry requirements.
Spain admitted almost 16,000 people under its contingente scheme for skilled workers in 2008, but cut the quota to 901 this year. Australia has lowered the number of skilled migrants it will let in this year by some 25,000, while the Italian government has said that no non-seasonal workers will be admitted this year. Russia, South Africa, India and Malaysia have also reduced their quotas.
In some countries, recent elections have indicated clear political gains to be made from restricting immigrants. European socialists did badly in the European Parliament elections last month, but in many states it was not mainstream conservatives who benefited, but smaller groups with a hard line on migration.
In Britain, the British National Party won its first two seats and in the Netherlands a populist party which calls for a ban on the Koran reached 17 per cent of the vote. Far-right parties also did well in Denmark, Austria and Slovakia. In Italy, Silvio Berlusconi’s Party of Freedom was the big winner after a campaign dominated by the issue of illegal immigration.
Clearly, the climate is becoming harsher for migrants. Although remittances are in precipitous decline, admission policies have become stricter and the number of people deciding to leave for the rich world has fallen sharply, the big question is whether these processes amount to the beginnings of a long-term reversal or a temporary lull that will pass with the recession. Some economists and demographers have suggested it may lead to the most significant turnaround in migration flows since the 1930s, but others disagree.
Among them is Demetrios Papademetriou, president of the Migration Policy Institute in Washington, who suggests that the factors that led to high migration over the past 20 years will remain once western economies recover.
When labour markets recover, those who lost their jobs in the early phases of the recession will be among the first to be rehired. “[Employers] will not want to take the chance of hiring permanent workers until they know that they are on solid economic recovery ground,” he says. “They’re going to go for the easy workers first.”
Moreover, although the flow of migrants has slowed, the lack of evidence of an exodus from the developed world suggests numbers have not declined significantly. The low take-up rates for voluntary return programmes indicates people are reluctant to leave unless they are guaranteed re-entry at a future date. A Pole can leave Ireland or Britain knowing the labour market will remain open to him, but an Indian who relinquishes his residence permit in another European country may not.
Also, while the short-term pay-off from migrating may have declined, the reasons people have for moving to another country in the first place still hold.
In a report published this month, the OECD pointed out that return migration depended as much on the attractions of home economies as on the situation in the host country, and migrants whose status is threatened by the crisis may look elsewhere in the developed world rather than consider a return home. Some have been quick to see opportunities in this. The Canadian province of Alberta, which forecasts long-term skill shortages, has funded an information campaign targeting highly skilled visa holders in the United States, offering a faster and more certain path to residence than in the US.
“It’s highly unlikely to me that we have hit a peak,” says Papademetriou, unless, he adds, the crisis leads to the introduction of new long-term policies on development, ageing and social security, thereby addressing the reasons why people migrate in the first place and the reasons developed economies need them.
“But if the policies remain the same . . . we are going to see a resumption of migration for very simple economic reasons.”
Series concluded
Migration at a glance: global figures
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Number of migrants:190.6 million or 3 per cent of population (UN 2005 figure).
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Women as percentage of migrants:49.6 per cent
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Refugees:13.5 million or 7.1 per cent of the total migrants
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South-South migrationis nearly as large as South-North migration.
More than 47 per cent of migrants from developing countries are believed to be living in other developing countries.
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Top 10 destination countries:United States, Russia, Germany, Ukraine, France, Saudi Arabia, Canada, India, United Kingdom, Spain.
But as a share of population, top immigration countries include Qatar (78.3%), United Arab Emirates (71.4%), Kuwait (62.1%), Singapore (42.6%), Bahrain (40.7%) and Israel.
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Top 10 emigration countries:Mexico, Russia, India, China, Ukraine, Bangladesh, Turkey, United Kingdom, Germany, Kazakhstan.
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Top 10 migration corridors:Mexico-United States, Russia-Ukraine, Ukraine-Russia, Bangladesh-India, Turkey-Germany, Kazakhstan-Russia, India-United Arab Emirates, Russia-Kazakhstan, Philippines-United States, Afghanistan-Iran.
• Top 10 remittance recipients in 2007:India ($27.0 bn), China ($25.7 bn), Mexico ($25.0 bn), Philippines ($17.0 bn), France ($12.5 bn), Spain ($8.9 bn), Belgium ($7.2 bn), United Kingdom ($7.0 bn), Germany ($7.0 bn), Romania ($6.8 bn).
• Top 10 remittance recipients in 2006 (as percentage of GDP):Tajikistan (36.2%), Moldova (36.2%), Tonga (32.3%), Kyrgyz Republic (27.4%), Honduras (25.6%), Lesotho (24.5%), Guyana (24.3%), Lebanon (22.8%), Haiti (21.6%), Jordan (20.3%).
Source:World Bank Migration and Remittances Factbook 2008
Monday's article in this series:No regrets, as home beckons after the boom http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/0720/1224250946950.html
Saturday's article in this series:American dream, Brazilian reality
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/weekend/2009/0718/1224250895867.html
