`What is clear is that everything is unclear." Thus did a leading Eurocrat comment on the timescale for formation of the new EU Commission, now that Romano Prodi's presidency has been suddenly agreed on in Berlin. It appears, however, that the Government has until June to nominate a successor to Pee Flynn as Ireland's EU Commissioner. The fallout from last month's mass resignation of the Commission means the procedure whereby June's Euro elections would be followed by the nominations of commissioners, and the public hearings before committees of new MEPs in the autumn, leading to the new regime taking power on January 1st, 2000, has been thrown into disarray. Indeed, some Eurocrats believe that as the new commission takes power sometime this summer, six months ahead of schedule, it will have to go through a similar ratification procedure again on January 1st if it is to avoid a legal challenge to its remaining in office for five-and-a-half years instead of five.
The scenario now looks like this: Prodi will address the plenary session of the parliament in Strasbourg next week; under the terms of the Amsterdam Treaty which comes into effect on May 1st he will be ratified by the outgoing MEPs at the May session, a formality given his strong position as a Christian Democrat nominated at a summit dominated by socialist prime ministers; and the newly elected parliament due to meet on July 20th may bring forward its session to set up committees to interview the nominee commissioners. Once that process is completed, and provided a commissioner isn't turned down - as the parliament is now all gung ho since its victory over Jacques Santer's team - the new Prodi administration will be ready for ratification, possibility at a special one-day session before the August holiday. The fact that the Government has a couple of months to select our commissioner doesn't make the choice any easier. The prospect of a dreaded by-election disqualifies many. Names in the pot include AG David Byrne, Euro judge John Murray, Maire Geoghegan Quinn, Gerry Collins, David Andrews, Brian Cowen and Des O'Malley, and from the opposition Alan Dukes and Dick Spring. Given the view that the stronger the candidate, the stronger the portfolio Prodi will allocate them, might Taoiseach Bertie Ahern fill the post from outside party ranks? It's unlikely. He's not one to risk the ire of the FF grassroots.