'It could be the kiss of death for him if we were to say it, but of course we would much prefer Kenneth Clarke to Iain Duncan Smith." Thus a senior diplomat echoing the words of politicians here as the Tories dropped Michael Portillo and choose the two names to go forward to constituency members for election as the next Conservative Party leader.
Whether Clarke or Duncan Smith becomes leader of the opposition in September will not have much effect on our relations with Britain, which centre on the North, but if one of them becomes Prime Minister, as the Tories expect, it will matter terribly. Clarke is preferable because he is better known, pro-Europe and more liberal. He is also believed to be easier to deal with and does not appear to carry Northern baggage. Duncan Smith is unknown. However, he has a military background, which includes service in the North (on one occasion, he was separated from his unit by a mob) and is a strong Euro-sceptic. Neither Clarke nor Duncan Smith had any profile on Ireland, but Clarke was a minister at the Home Office and was Chancellor of the Exchequer, so he knows something about us, outside the military dimension. "Oh yes, we would be much easier doing business with Clarke on both the North and on Europe, but then Tony Blair looks like he'll be there a long time yet," says the mandarin.
Quidnunc can be contacted at rholohan@irish-times.ie