How Ireland can come out swinging

US technology consultant Gregor Bailar gave  KARLIN LILLINGTON a positive assessment of the country's ability to reinvent its economy

GREGOR BAILAR’S business card lists “treehugger” prominently among his other occupations, but don’t let the tongue-in-cheek job description fool you. Yes, he has a heartfelt and professional interest in the green agenda and conservation (he is a director of the National Wildlife Federation in the US, and advises on a green data centre project on a Navajo reservation in the States) but he also has sterling technology credentials, with an electrical engineering degree that took him through a range of technical positions.

He spent much of the last decade as chief information officer (CIO) for finance company Capital One. Prior to that, he was CIO for the Nasdaq exchange – dealing with the heady dotcom rise and then its crash, and then the crisis of 9/11.

He also worked for Citibank, for EDS founder Ross Perot, and for Steve Jobs’s post-Apple computer company NeXT.

“I did all that for 20 years, loved it, and saw every aspect of technology that you can see,” he says. “I spent my career having really lucky opportunities to be involved with some companies at a really cool time.”

In Dublin this week to give a keynote talk to the Institute of International and European Affairs’ Digital Futures group, Bailar now splits his time between speaking and consulting, working with his personal investments, and doing philanthropic work.

His Dublin talk focused on how technology can help fight the recession, and the need to rethink technology in the light of changing infrastructure – the need to cut consumption, and find new energy sources.

In an interview, Bailar offered a generally upbeat view of what Ireland has achieved and the ability of the State to come out swinging in whatever new arenas of competition emerge post-recession.

“There’s still so much going on in Ireland that is still on a momentum path that is way different from other countries that haven’t yet figured out how to embed innovation or technology into their economy. I truly think [the current difficulty and uncertainty] is just something that Ireland is going to have to experiment with a bit and then will come back.”

But what about concerns that the country is so economically hobbled that the multinationals will turn away and the tide of inward investment roll back?

“The truth about multinationals and anyone who is working on an arbitrage system, whether it’s labour, tax code or resources – they’re eventually going to find a cheaper labour force, or a more interesting tax code, or a resource that’s more plentiful.

“So when you’re in a controlled environment where you don’t have any of those three, you have to figure out how to do something different, and the question is, how long does it take you to do that and what kind of skillsets are commutable into that new world?

“So why Ireland v somewhere else? First of all Ireland, although hit hard currently at a macro level, has the skills. They’re not evaporating. The diaspora of the Irish hasn’t robbed Ireland of skillsets. But there’s going to have to be reinvention and reinvestment.

“There’s no doubt that it will take change; it won’t be the same business models or the same businesses that bring new jobs, but you have to believe that the muscle is there to do that.”

He says that “at least, if I were looking at my bets, I’d bet on [Ireland] figuring that out before I’d figure on Nicaragua – a similarly sized country with lots of resources but one that has never proved that it can go through an economic boom based on technology and innovation”.

He also contrasts Ireland with India, a vast nation also looking to technology to drive its economy.

“The secret to India was labour arbitrage and quality. They had the ability to give cheaper labour and to give foreign companies good quality technologists. What Ireland did in my estimation was seek out areas where they could do a similar arbitrage of skill and quality and price. They tended to attract more hardware and manufacturing than India did at first because India was so rampant in the software.

“The other thing Ireland did well was get into the tele-business or business-process outsourcing. India actually didn’t do so well in that. They didn’t have the same connected feel to an American marketplace or a European marketplace. So Ireland still has an asset there which is not yet outstripped. Ireland still has potential there”

But then there are the downsides: “I think there are addictions Ireland has developed that are unsustainable,” he says. He believes Ireland is too focused on consumption and has driven the cost of living so high that it has damaged the country’s ability to offer labour or cost as attractions to investment from abroad, he says.

“Ireland at the same time has a reasonably good infrastructure for education,” he notes.

And the bottom line? “A government that is adept at bidding against others is going to do well.”

As the cliché goes, Ireland has always excelled at ‘punching above its weight’. In a post-recession world, that may prove to be Ireland’s winning card.

* Listen to a podcast with the full interview with Gregor Bailar: www.techno-culture.com/podcasts