Gurus gather as economic uncertainty looms

INNOVATION:Derek Williams is an "inspirationalist". His specialist subject is putting the "wow" into customer care. He appears at business conferences to talk about a range of issues, including communication - "that chipped coffee cup may say more about your business than the ISO certificate in reception" - and leadership - "there's no such thing as a bad employee".

Williams exists in the outer reaches of the business guru market. It's easy to be snooty about him (my God, it's easy) and whether he makes it as the next Tom Peters remains to be seen. But at least his timing is sound: this is a great time to be offering solutions. Clouds are gathering on the economic horizon and gurus love bad news. They work the corridors of uncertainty, whether personal or institutional. About now, we are at our most vulnerable; wide open to some pseudo-scientific advice from a smooth talking American with scholarly spectacles and a European surname.

When Accenture published its list of Top 50 Business Gurus, there were some striking features, most notably the longevity of the people on the list. Charles Handy, Henry Mintzberg, Gary Hamel; these are names that have formed part of business school curricula since business schools were invented. Top of the pile is Michael E Porter, Harvard professor and author of Competitive Strategy, which is on its 63rd re-print, and later, Competitive Advantage.

Porter is exceptionally clever. He is the Stephen Hawking of gurudom. His books are equally impenetrable. But they are quoted widely and Porter's views on strategy form those of every other consultant working the patch. Porter's pre-eminence identifies a conundrum at the heart of business consulting.

People with the time to read Competitive Analysis do not need to read it. The small group of people who do need to read it and are in a position to put his ideas in to action, are working 18-hour days running multinational FTSE 100 companies.

There is a market here for executive briefings, one which is picking up speed on the web. Silicon.com is the best example, offering a fast route to collecting all the relevant bits of the best new thinking and presenting it to the boss simply. This is the grown-up version of people who used to pay for someone else to do their homework.

In the bookshop, the secret to becoming a best selling hyphenate (writer-consultant) is to capture a complex idea simply. "How mass participation changes everything" is Wikinomics' log line, a book that is currently being sold by the million.

For every macro book, there are hundreds seeking to improve our personal efficiency and unlock our potential.

Personal efficiency is the business version of happiness, the pursuit of which is driving a new book market of its own. It's a fleeting thing: the clear desk leading to a Zen-like calm and momentary feeling of control. For a five-figure fee, David Allen, author of Getting Things Done, will come to your office and throw your stuff into a bin liner.

Occasionally, the gurus come down from their ivory towers of academia and non-exec heaven and get called to account.

This week is a case in point. Robert Rubin was number two behind Michael Porter on the Accenture list. He was the US Treasury Secretary in the Clinton administration, where he is credited with rescuing the dollar, and he is also chairman of Citigroup, the banking colossus which has been caught in the headlights of the sub-prime mortgage car crash and which lost its chief executive as a result.

Analysts have begun to ponder Rubin's role over the past few years as he takes over the chief executive role.

Perhaps Rubin will cite one of his fellow gurus, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. In Taleb's view, few of the major events of the past could have been predicted before they occurred. Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Google, the tsunami, 9/11 can only be explained after they happened.

His views undermine the claims of economists, statisticians and any other so called seers. He's not what you'd call popular in gurudom. But right now, Robert Rubin thinks the world of him.