Fuelling debate

BOOK REVIEW:This ambitious and timely book presents an in-depth diagnosis of the US's addiction to oil, but it also argues that international opinion has coalesced and the widely held view is that the status quo on oil, the environment and the car industry must change, writes John Reed.

Zoom: The Global Race to Fuel the Car of the FutureBy Iain Carson and Vijay Vaitheeswaran Hachette Books, $27.99 (€19.60)

As Americans surveyed the damage wrought by hurricane Katrina in 2005, Bill Ford jnr, then Ford Motor's chief executive, made a dramatic speech declaring a national energy crisis.

With much of the Gulf of Mexico's oil infrastructure knocked out, he called for a White House summit of oil and automotive bosses for a national dialogue on energy security.

Politicians and industry, in spite of graphic evidence of the costs of the US's carbon-intensive economy to human life and their own profits, did not respond, least of all to calls for a petrol tax. Two years later, petrol remains the cheapest liquid on sale at most American filling stations, costing less per gallon than milk, coffee or mouthwash.

Zoom, an ambitious and timely book, presents an in-depth diagnosis of the US's addiction to oil and oil's symbiotic partner, the petrol combustion engine. Although focused on the US, it also studies the role of rising economies such as China, now the world's second-largest source of carbon dioxide emissions and vehicle sales.

The authors, journalists for the Economist, argue that, since Katrina, public and political opinion around the world has coalesced and the widely held view is that the status quo on oil, the environment and the car industry must change. The "Axis of Oil" is poised to be replaced by the "Great Awakening", which they claim "could be the most important political force of this new century".

Change will not come easily, however, after a century in which the nexus of petrol and cars has been central to forces of global economic expansion.

The authors also point out that today's rising oil prices support not only alternative energy sources but also the exploitation of dirtier variants such as coal and Canada's oil sands.

China, where car sales could eclipse those of the US within a decade, adds a new variable to the equation.

The outlook is not all grim, and this is where the analysis gets interesting. Asia's rising economies are unlikely to scrap cars - a universal symbol of personal upward mobility - but they are uniquely positioned to break with the US's template of oil-fuelled growth.

Because China has not invested heavily in petrol stations or other infrastructure for conventional cars, it could become a leader in plug-in or hydrogen fuel cell cars. China is a big enough market to sway future global technology. Indeed, suppliers of cleaner-car technology have been beating a path there.

Another new element is the influence of first movers, such as Toyota, on new technology. Thanks to market clout and early investments in hybrid cars, it has captured most of that small but growing market, and forced competitors, such as GM, to license the technology or scramble to develop their own.

The authors also discuss developing technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells and present some tantalising scenarios, including plug-in vehicles that could, when idle, feed some of the power stored under their hoods back to the electricity grid.

Zoom is perhaps too optimistic in its prediction of a Great Awakening. If US politicians could not agree on the higher petrol taxes that would have jolted fuel savings and cleaner-car development after Katrina, why should they now, with a national election approaching?

Carson and Vaitheeswaran present some persuasive, if not conclusive, evidence of a change in the US, where the green agenda is being embraced across the political divide. They cite California's exacting standards for cars under Republican governor Arnold Schwarzenegger as evidence that enlightened public policy is not confined to "social-democratic Europe or communitarian Japan".

Deeper analysis of the costs and benefits of green-friendly policies would have been welcome. After all, the explosion of gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles in the US is in part the result of a loophole in fuel-economy legislation.

Also, if petrol taxes are raised, how can they be engineered to avoid hurting the US's working poor, who have fewer public transport alternatives than their counterparts in Europe or Japan? Such issues may provide fuel for a future book.