Leinster gain more from RDS showdown

Gerry Thornley On RugbyThere could never be two winners on New Year's Eve at the RDS and perhaps, on balance, Leinster's stirring win was the best case scenario in terms of the two provinces moving forward into a make-or-break month for their seasons.

Undoubtedly though, Leinster took the bigger step forward from Saturday's encounter.

Even allowing for their famed ability to regroup in times of adversity and respond to the heady emotional cocktail of their Magnificent Obsession, Munster's form and fixtures appear the more disconcerting.

If there's one game Castres are apt to be up for, even when out of contention, it is surely for the visit of Munster given the history between the two. And if Sale come to Thomond Park with all their big guns in tow, they are one of the few teams in Europe who have the firepower up front to take Munster on where they are strongest.

That is a particular concern in light of their pack's failure to breach the Leinster line in that opening quarter. Normally, when the Munster pack get a whiff of the opposition line their ability to raise their intensity and work for each other is second to none.

But when Leinster withstood those repeated drives, and then had the temerity to do unto Munster what they traditionally do unto Leinster, it seemed to send shockwaves through their ranks, and their backs seemed understandably wary of defending in any one-on-one situations.

Of course, Munster's dependence on their pack for scores, or via their backs inside from close-range after concerted pressure from the forwards, is nothing particularly new. In his pomp Mike Mullins, in tandem with David Wallace and Keith Wood, gave them three line-breakers, as did Christian Cullen when fitness permitted. But, save for games such as the quarter-final three years ago when Alan Gaffney identified Stade Français's soft outside defence for Mullins and Shaun Payne to exploit off Ronan O'Gara's flat, skip passes, they have been the exception rather than the rule.

Barry Murphy has been a breath of fresh air but is still developing, and although Gary Connolly has provided some thrust, notably with grubbers for two of the tries at home to Castres, they also lack Jason Holland's distribution to unlock defences.

Nor are they building rapidly through the phases quite like they used to, even last season, but perhaps the most worrying has been the body language of Ronan O'Gara, who has looked tetchy and careworn.

He has played an awful lot of rugby since his comeback toward the end of last season, with only three weeks' holidays. Granted, he began the season well but, like Anthony Horgan, he seems to have suffered from his experiences in the November Tests.

He has always carried a heavier load with Munster than with Ireland, and hopefully, and presumably, it is only a blip.

The month ahead for Leinster is every bit as daunting and could just as easily break their season as make it. Saturday was a huge step forward for their pack, and they can surely now go into next Saturday's trip to Llanelli and the pivotal Heineken European Cup games against Glasgow and then Bath at the Rec with increased belief that they can withstand the ferocity they will inevitably encounter that day.

Bath look like being a far more rounded package when they encounter Leinster in three weeks' time than they were under the forward-oriented, Queensland-style of John Connolly, with the returning Brian Ashton liable to have a galvanic effect.

It could well be a much more fluid, high-tempo game than Bath have attempted to embroil Leinster in previously. Indeed, they had scored 13 tries in four successive wins since Connolly's departure at the end of November although tellingly, in Ashton's first game in charge, Bath were beaten by 21-9 at the Rec by Sale yesterday.

Although one-time England prop David Flatman returned to the bench after 18 months absence yesterday, this has been more than offset by David Barnes being sidelined for three months with a torn Achilles tendon.

Still, their scrum will be a stiffer test of the Reggie Corrigan, Brian Blaney and Will Green frontrow, while Leinster know better than anyone what kind of pressure Steve Borthwick and Danny Grewcock can exert.

However, technically and psychologically, last Saturday's performance by the Leinster pack was a quantum leap forward and showed once again how the sheer presence and aura of Malcolm O'Kelly can lift those around him.

If they can even hold their own scrums and lineouts, and help manufacture quick loose ball, they have the backs to hurt anybody in Europe. Nothing new there, although if anything Felipe Contepomi's running game, the alacrity with which his mind sees things and the pace with which he does things, not to mention Girvan Dempsey's rejuvenation, have made them more potent than ever.

If Denis Hickie can prove his sharpness between now and then, perming all those talents together could ultimately result in a familiar three-quarter line of Hickie, Gordon D'Arcy, Brian O'Driscoll and Shane Horgan, with Robert Kearney either starting or on the bench, and Kieran Lewis unlucky to miss out. Ultimately, a swap between the provinces of Lewis and Trevor Hogan might make sense.

One final aside. Alastair McKay's performance rightly came in for criticism from all and sundry. Although he's had experience of European Challenge Cup, Celtic League and AIB All-Ireland League Division One games this season, his whole body language from the off suggested he was intimidated by the whole occasion and a raft of inconsistent penalties (18 in the first-half) betrayed as much.

All that said and done, there had been input from all parties (provinces included) at the outset of the season to change the previous policy of picking referees firstly on merit, by reverting to neutrality as the first criteria, which effectively ruled out the likes of Alain Rolland, Alan Lewis, Donal Courtney and Olan Trevor.

Still, with no TMO available, McKay at least got all the try-scoring decisions right and his performance cannot be said to have affected the outcome, while everybody was agreed that the match was a thriller. And would it have been any better with a Scot in charge?

gthornley@irish-times.ie