Gauging Gatland's guide to Irish weaknesses

The Wales coach knows well how and where his side can target the visitors’ deficiencies

INDULGE ME for a moment and allow me the pleasure of drifting across the water into the Welsh camp. Let me take on the persona of the Lions forwards coach and the current Grand Slam coach. His last nine Six Nation’s matches have returned eight victories, a Triple Crown, a Championship and a Grand Slam. The game he lost this year was against France in Paris, where Ireland have lost many times.

This Welsh loss was by one score, five points, and against a French side bursting for a victory.

Their victories, conversely, have been by 13 points over Scotland, Ireland managed it by seven; by eight over England, Ireland managed it by one.

Over the past two seasons Wales have been winning a lot of matches and have been doing it with style. Against Australia in the autumn they managed a 21-18 victory when Ireland were struggling against Argentina and being walloped by the All Blacks.

This Welsh team are favourites to win tomorrow, and here’s how Warren Gatland will view us.

Although the sides Ireland have met to date have not exposed our defence, having conceded a miserable three tries, it will be done tomorrow. Scotland proved by moving the point of contact left and right at speed the Irish can look ragged. Combined with the famous Welsh ball “off the ground out of the tackle” continuity, the Irish defence will become disjointed and very tired.

Over the course of the Championship Gatland will have noticed that, after multiple phases, John Hayes and co find themselves all too often in the middle of the defensive line. Seldom have the opposition exposed this, but Gatland’s side will.

Let’s not fool ourselves – in a match of the tightest margins Shane Williams will be searching for John Hayes just as Riki Flutey did Sébastien Chabal. It is no coincidence Flutey ended up in front of Chabal after four minutes last week on the way to England’s opening try.

Expect Gatland to use Williams. It may only happen once, but in a tight game that may be enough. Jamie Heaslip’s amazing try against France came when tighthead Lecouls, Chabal and Nallet were alone on their 22.

The Irish centres are superb players with a spectrum of skills, but neither has a kicking game that will pressurise the Welsh. That both are world class is not the issue, but Gatland will look to expose this limitation.

The “Gatland gun” defence will as always target the outside in, so a clever Irish kicking game is required to unhinge the onrushing Welsh.

The Irish kicking game will be of great interest to Gatland. His back three will adore the opportunity of fielding O’Gara’s punts and run, run, run back at them. Again, the Irish defensive system will be tested, and Gatland will have spotted peculiarities.

Speaking of the Irish backline: Gatland will have noticed Ireland rely heavily on set-piece plays that require precision, incorporating a first phase (lineout) followed by ordained moves. He knows well an aggressive defence will put enormous pressure on the ball-receiver. This may force O’Gara back into the pocket. The outhalf has to remain aggressive, on the gain line and brave.

Gatland will notice, too, that the Irish rely on their front five to run at tree trunks in defence. Close-in targets that evolve into slow attacking ball where the scrumhalf has to dig deep into the ruck. He will also remember how the brave Paul O’Connell picks and goes around the fringe. His big men will be waiting.

Gatland will also have noticed the half-time scores have not flattered Ireland. France down by 10-13, Italy down by 9-14, England drawing 3-3 and Scotland ahead by only 12-9. He will realise that in the closing stretch Ireland will be at their best. Therefore, he will insist on scores on the board. Expect Stephen Jones to drop goal at will and push home every advantage by half-time.

Thank God the man in the middle is from north of the equator. Unfortunately we can’t have Alain Rolland, but I’m sure Wayne Barnes will do. The Irish scrum, with the help of Jonathan Kaplan, survived against Scotland, but Barnes will have a stronger view. This will allow the 6ft 4in, 18st “one trick pony” Andy Powell to run hard at O’Gara. And, when he arrives from the bench, it will be 6ft 4in and 16st 9lb Jamie Roberts’ turn to run hard.

Expect Wales to use the extra five metres at the scrum. Gatland knows Munster used David Wallace out in the centre to nullify the Leinster backline in the European Cup match in 2006. And England used Joe Worsley in the same way to great effect.

So will Ireland take the same chance? Absolutely, but who’ll marshal the inside channel? And more importantly, can Ireland survive without Wallace at the coalface the way Munster could?

The most underrated Lion of them all, Martyn Williams, will once again prove a thorn in the Irish side. He has perfected the art of continuity, seamlessly allowing the ball to flow. If Wallace is out in the Irish backline, who will neuter Williams?

Except for a handful of times, mainly against France, the Irish back three have been very conservative, so Gatland will happily keep the ball out of touch and trust his defence (five tries conceded).

Ireland’s scores have been built around the lineout. Nullify it and Gatland knows Ireland will be forced into inventive play, something that hasn’t been all too evident.

The Irish lineout has some peculiarities to it also. Once again they have four main options, but rely heavily on O’Connell in the middle. It’s worked well with speed and simplicity. But it’s on the ground Gatland will notice that the Irish backrow can move up the line. Will Williams follow?

By the way, Wales have their weaknesses too, but I just happened to drift into the Welsh camp for a moment. Gatland will also realise O’Gara, O’Connell, O’Driscoll etc are an exceptional team that have all the ingredients to win.

So can Ireland win? Absolutely.

But will they win? Unfortunately the answer is no.

Well – that’s what Warren Gatland will be thinking.

So what of the Welsh weaknesses? They have several, but their biggest tomorrow will be their numbers 4, 5 and 6. Ryan Jones missed the opener against Scotland, wasn’t selected against the Italians and went missing against the France. He’s a monster, but based on his play thus far shouldn’t be starting.

May I end on this Grand Slam weekend as I’ve started so many weeks ago, with a little Patton: “In . . . operations, retreat is impossible; to surrender is as ignoble as it is foolish. Above all else, remember that we as attackers have the initiative, we know exactly what we are going to do, while the enemy is ignorant of our intentions and can only parry our blows. We must retain this tremendous advantage by always attacking rapidly, ruthlessly, viciously and without rest.”

Once again, spare a thought for those fallen soldiers who won’t be part of tomorrow’s party . . .