FROZEN FIRE'S incident-packed victory at the Curragh on Sunday has been officially rated a "below average Irish Derby winning performance" but the jury is out on how good he may eventually end up being.
That's the view of Europe's handicappers who have handed the Aidan O'Brien-trained colt an official rating of 122 following his Classic success at the weekend.
It is one of the lowest marks handed to a winner of Ireland's most prestigious race in recent years and only the 121 rating picked up by Hurricane Run in winning the race in 2005 is lower.
However, that French horse went to become a world champion later in the year by winning the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and similar progress up the official figures table could yet be made by Frozen Fire.
"We have taken Sunday's race through Casual Conquest who again has run up to a mark of 118. We take the view that he hasn't improved between Epsom and The Curragh. Giving 2lb for a length, that's how Frozen Fire comes out a 122," said Ireland's senior handicapper Garry O'Gorman yesterday.
Dermot Weld's view immediately after Sunday's Classic was that Causal Conquest had improved to beat Tartan Bearer who was ahead of him at Epsom but the handicap specialists are taking a different tack.
"Tartan Bearer ran to 125 at Epsom but he managed only 117 plus at the Curragh. He hasn't run the same race at all and I don't think that was solely down to being hampered. He simply looked to run flat," O'Gorman said.
"There was a very good period at the start of the decade when the likes of Galileo, Alamshar, High Chaparral and Sinndar got mid to high one-twenty figures for winning the Irish Derby. By that standard, Frozen Fire's was a below average Irish Derby winning performance.
"But what's interesting is that he has come back from flopping at Epsom and has fulfilled the promise of his 114 run in the Dante which was a remarkable first run of the season for an Aidan O'Brien-trained horse.
"If you look at the likes of Alessandro Volta, he has improved 12lb for his first run of the season, 7lb for his second and he is up 4lb again after Sunday. Bashkirov looked a very ordinary horse earlier in the season but he was beaten less than five lengths on Sunday and is now a 113. It's noticeable how Aidan O'Brien's horses improve for their races so Frozen Fire's 114 in the Dante was out of the ordinary. On that basis I was surprised Johnny Murtagh didn't ride him at Epsom,"
O'Gorman added. "He did it very well in the end on Sunday. If you ignore all the distractions in the straight, he actually finished out the race well and won decisively. It will be interesting how he rates at the end of the season but right now he is a 122."
Weld's Carribean Sunset is set to run in the American Oaks at Hollywood Park in Los Angeles with Pat Smullen on board.
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