GAELIC GAMES:A tight game will suit Donegal – that's their one and only chance and I expect Dublin to win by five or six points, writes JOHN O'KEEFFE

WE ALL know by now how both teams will set up, particularly Donegal. They will stick to Jim McGuinness’s rigid blueprint that has delivered an Ulster title, held off Kildare in Croke Park and saw them reach an All-Ireland under-21 final last year.

Putting 13 men behind the ball sends out the message that they seek a low-scoring contest and will try to take the few opportunities that present themselves. Donegal feel they are well capable of breaking out of their ultra-defensive mode and playing an open, expansive game but only when the moment demands it.

They will hope for a similar half-time score to the Kildare game, 0-5 to 0-3, as it provided confirmation that their tactics were working.

The task for Dublin is to punch holes in their collective belief as early as possible. I hope they don’t think the solution is to take a gung-ho approach from the throw-in because that patently doesn’t work against Donegal.

McGuinness has them well-drilled to resist attacks to their jugular. Kildare rather naively went route one to Tomás O’Connor in the initial stages and it robbed them of some important scores, if they had been more calculated in their approach.

You won’t get lucky against this Donegal defence. Neil McGee is a fine full back and there are just too many bodies clogging up the central arteries.

Dublin must attack with width and trust their long-range shooting even more than they did against Tyrone. Not that I expect 0-7 from Diarmuid Connolly, yet four or five Dublin players must find their range at some stage tomorrow.

The centre of Donegal’s defence is a no-go area. Just ask Antrim, Tyrone, Derry or Kildare.

Dublin have added a few strings to their bow during this championship campaign. The use of accurate kick-passing has become a weapon.

To progress it will be about playing with pace and composure. As they have done all year. But the pressure will never have been so great. They expected the white heat intensity from Tyrone and had prepared accordingly. It will surely come tomorrow.

A few early points from Connolly or the Brogans would seem important as it would eventually draw Donegal out of their defensive shell.

The fitness level of both teams is immense. Donegal’s short hand-passing game is a notable contrast to Dublin’s approach. It puts more demands on the physical element and is very difficult to sustain over 70 minutes.

If Dublin can repeat the same standard of skill levels from the wet conditions of the quarter-final against Tyrone then they will be almost impossible to defeat. Looking at their middle eight I see an impressive energy, mobility and athleticism. No other county compares to them in this area at the moment.

Denis Bastick was previously seen as a weakness but his marking of Seán Cavanagh puts that idea to rest. Barry Cahill still has a hugely significant role in the team as well.

But it is Paul Flynn, above anyone else, who typifies the principles of Pat Gilroy’s team. There is his selfless tracking back coupled with lung-busting attacking runs that are sometimes just to provide a decoy to ensure clean ball gets in to Bernard Brogan or Connolly. His delivery of possession inside is also important as is his ability to recover quickly and go again. He is the modern Dublin footballer, in the Gilroy way.

When Donegal realise an All-Ireland final cannot be reached without opening up the play and kicking some scores, we will see some quality football.

In Michael Murphy they have one of the best forwards in the country. However, Rory O’Carroll did a fabulous man-marking job on him in last year’s All-Ireland under-21 final. He played him from the front. That will be required again tomorrow but I don’t think O’Carroll will be left isolated on Murphy. Dublin never allow this to happen anymore.

Cian O’Sullivan is the man to provide assistance as he proved so excellently against Tyrone. Against Kildare, Colm McFadden seemed to struggle for pace in the wide open spaces of Croke Park.

Maurice Deegan’s interpretation of the tackle law will be significant because there will be plenty of contact. Both teams have developed a method of stripping opponents of possession. It is legal. Now all they need is the correct refereeing.

The determination of both teams to turn over possession is a key strength.

Donegal tackle in packs and it is aggressive. There is a fine line between winning possession and conceding a scoreable free.

There will be numerous examples tomorrow. Watch when a player carries the ball into a crowded area. Does he get the free or is he penalised for overcarrying? The referee will have the best view of each moment of contact. It could prove the difference in a tight game.

Overall, I just feel that Dublin will move on. They are further down the road as a group of players and coaches than Donegal. There is the bitter memory of losing to Cork at this stage last season. It should provide adequate motivation.

A mental fragility reared its head when the game was there to be won 12 months ago, and it was apparent again in the league final. Those slips in discipline seem to have since been eradicated.

Proof will only come in the last 10 minutes because Donegal proved in extra-time against Kildare that they have the necessary leadership in Kevin Cassidy and Karl Lacey to punish any team.

A tight game will suit Donegal. That’s their one and only chance.

I expect Dublin to win by five or six points and show they are the best-equipped team to take on Kerry in September.