Connacht ship likely to be hit by meteor storm

ON JANUARY 13th, 2002, a little after 3.30pm, I stepped out onto the Stade Municipal, Toulouse’s hallowed turf. It’s always an exciting game to be part of but very quickly I felt like I was the Battlestar Galactica and had just run out of fuel in the middle of a meteor shower in a distant galaxy.

There were plenty of stars on both sides but they all appeared to be flying past me. Leinster had a little way to travel before truly scaling Europe but the teamsheet that day was full of Galácticos; so too Toulouse. We lost 43-7 and it was horrible.

Nearly 10 years on, Connacht step out on to the Stade Ernest Wallon, Toulouse, and their experience may be similar. It is hard to predict what tactics Connacht should employ to gain that first victory in the Heineken Cup as this French game has much more than a simple win up for grabs.

It is a very special place to perform and performance can be gauged in many ways. Most people look at the result and in Connacht’s recent past their losing streak. This is very lazy, as I highlighted last week, and there is much to be proud of this season.

I do have concerns for the injury profile that has escalated in Connacht, not just for the volume but the players themselves. It appears they are losing their best players through injury. Why? Take openside Jonny O’Connor’s jaw injury which follows hot on his long lay-off; Michael Swift likewise. Are the key team leaders carrying too much in fighting for Connacht? There has been a marked improvement in Connacht’s competitiveness this season, which is not reflected in the tables. What reflects it is the injury statistics. They are putting their bodies on the line and will have to do so again tomorrow with little chance of reward on the scoreboard.

Tonight, Friday the 13th, and Ulster entertain Leicester in the match of the weekend. There is much confidence emanating from Ravenhill but I wonder could Ulster do what Leicester did over the past weeks, crawling from the bottom of the Aviva Premiership after a terrible start? Of their opening 10 competitive matches till the draw against London Irish on October 28th, they won but three and since then (nine matches) they have won eight, losing only to Clermont Auvergne in France. A powerful turnaround and it is their power, allied to their use of the noisy away crowd, that worries me.

Where have Ulster struggled when the pressure arrives? Their ambition on the gainline has been excellent all season but at crucial times the errors pile up, taking pressure off the opposition and worse, affording them scoring chances. Much has been made of the home atmosphere in Ravenhill and rightly so, but I fancy this will energise the vastly seasoned Leicester.

I don’t know of a better breakdown team in English rugby than Leicester, who with a combination of ferociousness and brilliant technique commit, at most, in pairs. Watch the speed at which they arrive to the decked ball carrier, their body height and their entry angle. Ulster, one to 15 must be water-tight when their brethren hit the deck. French referee Romain Poite will be busy.

It is in this area of contact that Ulster must maintain control. Who starts at 10 for Ulster will be crucial but who finishes there will be even more so. I’m appalled at Stefan Terblanche’s arrival but in Ruan Pienaar Ulster coach Brian McLaughlin can alter games midstream (to the detriment of classy Paul Marshall). How all this will affect Ian Humphreys only time will tell, especially if he doesn’t close out the game, but it’ll be a real insight into McLaughlin’s assessment of Humphreys and his ambition for Ulster.

A big start is vital for Ulster but an early score won’t worry Leicester overly, which brings Ulster’s confidence into view. Tonight will be a massive test, akin to the many Munster and Leinster had to negotiate on their way to the promised land. I expect a real battle where every inch will count. Stephen Ferris is obviously as crucial as ever to get that go forward, making yards and offloading.

Leicester will not be shy or deficient on cutting him down early. So as the game evolves, and with it the tempo, Ulster will have to dig deep. Leicester without Toby Flood and Manu Tuilagi will have the very exciting Billy Twelvetrees at 10; not a classic 10 but brilliant in traffic and cutting lines. Humphreys’ defence as usual will be tested by Twelvetrees but also by the directness of their play. Allied to their ferocious clear outs they push forwards off scrumhalf ad nauseam into the opposing 10 channel. This affords their pack a quick clear out and repeat again. Although limited in ambition, their chain of three exploiting space is very impressive.

Of their familiar players, Geordan Murphy at 15 is a master at finding space and remains dangerous. Up front I’m not convinced with “Tom the tank engine” (Thomas Waldrom ) at number eight. They are, however, a united pack and will embrace Ravenhill, especially Martin Castrogiovanni. In summary, have Ulster enough to beat Leicester? The answer is just about but my sense is Tom Court is vital, so too Dan Tuohy, but Humphreys needs to display real leadership in the closing stages. If he’s still on the pitch it’ll be a real indicator of how his coach views him.

My only interest in Munster’s match against Castres tomorrow is in the home team backrow. Can they carry in traffic when the team are struggling? Against Scarlets they were excellent but simply couldn’t change the course of the game like a Ferris or Seán O’Brien. As Scarlets upped the tempo Munster needed big carries and big hits to turn the table. It didn’t come. Niall Ronan has blossomed in David Wallace’s absence and has carried, maybe too often and as a bullock, brilliant but he’s not that type of player.

He’s equally effective at number eight but neither is James Coughlan that type of carrier. Peter O’Mahony is certainly on the road. Jamie Heaslip has proved over the past weeks that effective ball-carrying can evolve as the season does.

Leinster’s big challenge in Firhill on Sunday morning is the relative ease with which they have destroyed this group thus far. The All Blacks have suffered in previous RWCs before being hoodwinked. Toulouse tend to struggle through the pools before igniting. Leinster should win but Firhill is far from the glamour end of the business and it could become a problem.

As for Connacht, when the meteor storm starts flying think of all the greats who have been there and done that. I implore you to simply enjoy it!

Finally and with great upset I’ve heard of the passing of Colm Tucker. Early in my time with Munster he invited me to watch Garryowen play Shannon out in Dooradoyle. For 80 minutes we stood in the terrace observing the match, discussing many aspects of the game. I’ll certainly never forget the constant cup of tea in hand, hearty smile and warm welcome from this true gentleman.