Election 2024

Election 2024: What we know so far as results roll in from around Ireland

There is a growing sense that a return to government for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is the most likely outcome of this election

Ballots for Stephen Donnelly and Jennifer Whitmore are stacked during counting at Shoreline Leisure, Greystones, Co Wicklow. Photograph: Niall Carson/PA Wire
Ballots for Stephen Donnelly and Jennifer Whitmore are stacked during counting at Shoreline Leisure, Greystones, Co Wicklow. Photograph: Niall Carson/PA Wire
Pat Leahy's picture
Pat Leahy
Sat Nov 30 2024 - 18:34

It’s still too early to reach definitive conclusions about where this election is going. But as partial tallies give way to full tallies, and full tallies give way to first counts, some things are now becoming clear.

The first is that there is a growing sense as the counts proceed that a return to government for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is by some distance the most likely outcome of this election. Looking at tallies from around the country, both big parties reckon that they will outperform the exit poll percentage figures – edging up into the low 20s. One, or both, could be ahead of Sinn Féin on the share of the first preference vote.

And probably on seats, too. A direct proportion of seats for votes at, say, 21 per cent of the vote would give a party 37 seats. At 22 per cent, it would be 38 seats.

But both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil can expect a decent seat bonus – and with the strong transfers suggested by the exit poll, that seems likely. So looking across the constituencies this afternoon, the estimates of seats were varying between the low and mid-40s for Fianna Fáil, and probably a little bit lower for Fine Gael (and for Sinn Féin). If that happens, it would put them past 80 seats and possibly within a few seats of the magic 88, the number that gives them a majority in the new Dáil.

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At that stage, the two big parties might not need a third party to achieve a majority – they could get over the line with the support of a few independent TDs. But would that be politically sustainable for five years? As economic storm clouds gather? Probably not.

So would Labour and/or the Social Democrats step up? The Soc Dems have sounded distinctly unenthused about the prospect. There is a somewhat complacent belief in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael that Labour will be delighted to serve in government with them. That may not prove to be automatically the case. Labour would surely be looking over its shoulder if the Soc Dems declined to serve.

Certainly, any smaller party looking at joining a FF-FG government will look at the unhappy fate that is unfolding for the Green Party in count centres across the country.

And the Greens are really in trouble. With tallies still coming in, the party could face losing all its seats – as happened the last time it was in government. It’s really too early to say for sure, but some seats are definitely gone and others – including party leader Roderic O’Gorman, junior minister Ossian Smyth and Cabinet minister Catherine Martin – will be hanging on by their fingernails at best. And they look less likely to hold on now than they did a few hours ago.

Even if they hold on to a seat or two, it looks like the end of the Greens as political force for now. They will regroup; they have, after all, been through this before, and come back from the dead. But for now the Green voice looks set to be removed from the national political stage – or at least banished to the margins. At a time when the effects of climate change around the world are beginning to make themselves felt in sometimes calamitous ways, there is surely some irony in that.

Labour will have a better day, and the Social Democrats a much better day. Both centre left parties are gunning for gains, and could end up with 8-10 seats each. Fears about leader Holly Cairns’ seat have been assuaged by early tallies, while Gary Gannon in Dublin Central has easily held off the challenge from returned ex-MEP Clare Daly. It looks like the end of the road for her. Mick Wallace’s campaign didn’t get off the ground in Wexford, either – the end of the Mick and Clare show, for now, anyway. Gannon deserves credit for standing up against Gerry Hutch, but he is also a beneficiary of the nationwide swing towards his party. The Social Democrats are growing in each election.

Sinn Féin is set to make some gains and looks to have managed its vote very effectively in some constituencies. It’s a sort of glass half-empty/glass half-full result for Sinn Féin; a year ago, it would have been regarded as a disaster, but at the start of the campaign they’d have taken your hand off for it. Mary Lou McDonald proved herself again a superb campaigning saleswoman, but Sinn Féin now faces another five years in opposition. The party has always showed strategic patience. It will certainly need it.

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