OPINION:A stunning defeat for socialist candidates may lead to the end of consensus in Europe, writes JAMIE SMYTH
EUROPEAN VOTERS made a decisive turn to the right in the European elections, signalling that a five-year period of consensus politics marked by “grand coalitions” between left and right may be coming to an end.
The scale of the defeat suffered by the main socialist parties across Europe at the hands of centre-right parties is stunning.
In the elections in Britain, Germany, Bulgaria, Portugal, Hungary, Estonia and Spain, parties allied to the mainstream Party of European Socialists (PSE) were ranked second or even third behind centre-right, Liberal or more exotic far-right opponents.
The poor results could perhaps be explained because these parties are participating in government at a time of severe economic crisis and rising unemployment.
But this explanation doesn’t stand up to close scrutiny as socialist parties also suffered heavy defeats in EU states where they are in opposition, such as Italy, France, Poland and the Netherlands.
Socialist group leader in the parliament Martin Schultz noted grimly as the results came in that it was a “very bitter evening” for the Socialists, who had hoped to capitalise on a financial crisis associated with neo-capitalism.
By early afternoon, with most of the votes counted, the Socialist Group was on course to claim just 161 seats in the parliament, compared to the 217 seats it won in the last elections in 2004.
In contrast, its centre-right opponent the EPP-ED group scored a major success, claiming 263 seats or 36 per cent of the vote, which is equivalent to its 2004 result even though the British and Czech conservatives have left the group.
When the extra 60 centre-right MEPs sitting in this New Conservative group are taken into account, the balance of power in parliament shifts decisively to the right.
“It’s very difficult to see how a coalition can be formed in the parliament by different groups that could sideline the EPP,” says Antonio Missiroli, director of the European Policy Centre think tank in Brussels.
“This will undoubtedly make the centre right much more powerful and give a boost to conservative policies over the next five years of the European Parliament.”
The first sign of growing centre-right confidence was on display yesterday with EPP-ED president Joseph Daul calling on all European leaders to nominate the group’s candidate José Manuel Barroso for the post of European Commission president at next week’s EU summit in Brussels.
The Socialist failure in the elections makes it virtually impossible to stop Barroso from getting a second term as head of the EU executive.
But the scale of the Socialists’ losses is also leading to speculation that the group could be outmanoeuvred in the battle for the post of parliament president.
Typically, this largely ceremonial role is split between two groups over a five-year parliamentary term in a deal, which also distributes plum jobs such as the chairs of committees that work on the detail of EU legislation.
In the 2004-2009 parliament, the Socialists and EPP-ED agreed a deal to ensure two of their candidates were elected president for 2½ years.
Liberal leader Graham Watson, whose group has about 83 MEPs, yesterday appealed to the EPP-ED to consider teaming up with the Liberals to build a broader coalition rather than relying on an existing deal with the Socialists.
“An ideological alliance between the EPP and the Liberals is the most logical choice,” said Watson, who covets the job of parliament president for himself and needs to prevent an EPP-ED/Socialist deal to obtain it.
Over the past five years, a cosy cartel between the two biggest groups, the EPP-ED and the Socialists, has defined work at the parliament. This has mirrored the situation in Germany where the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats have shared power in a grand coalition.
“The services directive was one clear example where the EPP-ED and the Socialists came to a deal based on behind the scenes negotiations between the two groups,” says Sara Hageman, co-founder of the Predict 09 website.
“The big question now is whether the Socialist poor showing in the elections will prompt them to take the role of a traditional opposition in the parliament,” she says.
Unlike the other two main parliamentary groups, EPP-ED and ALDE, the Socialists chose not to hold a press conference yesterday.
But in a short press statement. the group said: “We need to reflect, and for our common European party to come forward with a renewed strategy and new ideas.”
There will inevitably be deep soul-searching in Germany where the Socialist Democrats face a national election in September and will need to define themselves from their coalition partners.
The French Socialists will also have to address a worrying surge in support for the Greens, who doubled their vote in the European elections at Socialist expense.
This suggests the Socialists may try to take a more ideological stance in the next parliament.
Given the centre-right majority in the parliament and the election of far-right MEPs in the Netherlands, Britain and Hungary, the Socialists will have plenty of opportunity to go into opposition.
On a host of crucial issues ranging from enlargement to the reform of the EU budget, they are likely to find themselves facing a tough battle with the right in the next five years.
The debut of the far-right British National Party and the Dutch Party for Freedom in the Netherlands in the parliament is likely to lead to bitter debates on whether enlargement talks with Turkey should continue. Both parties vociferously oppose letting the predominantly Muslim country into the EU and they will find allies among French and German EPP MEPs.
A more dominant centre right will also oppose any increase in the EU budget, which faces a major review next year.
The European Commission wants a bigger budget to face the new challenges facing the union. But conservative MEPs from the “one per cent club” led by Germany and the Netherlands will fight to limit the amount of cash allocated to the EU.
The New Conservative group in the parliament, which is expected to include up to 60 MEPs from the British Tories, the Czech Civic Democrats and the Polish Law and Justice party, will probably team up with other Eurosceptic MEPs to oppose further integration.
There is already huge concern in the parliament that Tory leader David Cameron will get into power before the Lisbon Treaty is ratified in all member states and try to rescind Britain’s ratification of the treaty to reform EU decision-making.
Perhaps, the most disappointing trend identified in the election was the continued drop in turnout to a new record low of 43 per cent.
In Lithuania, just 15.7 per cent of the public cast a vote while in Slovakia 19 per cent voted. The low turnout comes in spite of a multimillion euro campaign urging people to vote and the fact that the parliament will see a significant increase in its powers if the Lisbon Treaty enters into force.