Micheál Martin has remade Fianna Fáil into a vehicle for its leader

Fianna Fáil may be moribund, but Micheál Martin holds more cards in his hand than any other Government party leader.

He is the next Irish nominee for European Commissioner if he chooses. He has a longer shot at bigger jobs, including president of the European Council or EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs.

He can lead his party into the general election, and there are circumstances in which he could re-emerge as tánaiste or even a rotating taoiseach again. None of these options is incompatible with being a candidate for president of Ireland in the autumn of 2025. It’s a political selection box – all disavowals of interest notwithstanding.

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As former taoiseach, Martin is well regarded by her and as part of the European liberal family he would offer a balance to her membership of the European People’s Party or Christian Democrats.

In theory, and assuming that von der Leyen is reappointed as Commission president, Martin is a potential candidate for the presidency of the European Council or High Representative on Foreign Affairs, who is a Commission vice-president.

The three big jobs of Commission president, Council president and High Representative are divvied out between the big political groups of Christian Democrats, Socialists and liberals. The presidency of the European Parliament is also in play. It is ultimately determined by the voters but factors in the final shakeout.

A breakthrough by the European conservatives and reformists, including Poland’s Law and Justice party (PiS) and Brothers of Italy led by prime minister Giorgia Meloni in European Parliament elections next year would, as Bertie Ahern famously said, “upset the ‘apple tart”.

Martin has reversed the normal relationship between leader and party. It is delivering for him and offering negative returns for Fianna Fáil.

And there is the liberal family itself. Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas is pushing for a top job. East Europeans believe their time has come, and there will only be one liberal in the inner circle. If that is the best to be hoped for, there is more of considerable substance to ask for.

As a former prime minister, Martin would be well set for a senior role in the Commission, possibly as a vice-president with other commissioners reporting to him. The presidency of the Council would, however, allow Ireland to have a commissioner. As an ally of von der Leyen and a valued parliamentary manager for the Commission in the parliament, it is an opening for Mairéad McGuinness’s reappointment.

Martin’s position is that he doesn’t want any of it and that is commendable. It is also true he didn’t want coalition with Fine Gael, and once championed the triple lock requiring UN, Dáil and government approval for military engagement abroad. That has been Irish policy since 1960 and now set to be reviewed in his National Consultative Forum on security policy in June.

Fine Gael’s position is clear; the triple lock should go. Martin will decide Fianna Fáil’s, but flying the kite buttresses him in Brussels and leaves his battered party further exposed to Sinn Féin at home.

The pebble in his shoe is not the European Council, it is the base reality of local and European elections in June 2024. It is potentially a torrid prospect for the Government parties.

With 26.92 per cent of the vote in 2019, Fianna Fáil emerged as the largest party in local government but simultaneously ended an electoral recovery begun in the 2016 general election. On the same day Sinn Féin reached its recent nadir with 9.48 per cent of the local election vote.

Three TDs were elected to the European Parliament and Fine Gael in government lost all three byelections. It contributed to an early election in February 2020, and the rest is history.

The paradox is that good results in June 2019 and subsequent byelections prompted Martin to overplay his hand and overstay the public’s welcome for his confidence and supply agreement with Fine Gael. He never recovered political momentum, but he has played a weak hand skilfully.

He has remade Fianna Fáil from a party with pretensions of national leadership into a reduced but successful vehicle for its leader. This reverses the normal relationship between leader and party. It is delivering for him and offering negative returns for Fianna Fáil.

If losses are contained, Martin retains his freedom of manoeuvre. If not, given the feeble state of his parliamentary party, he may still be in charge regardless. Losses of any kind would allow him to make the sacrifice of moving on to facilitate another step up. With regret, he would go to Brussels and deploy his considerable skills at musical chairs there. In any event, I predict he will be sitting pretty.

The bigger risk, but the ultimate accolade, would be to do as he says and fight the next election. In the aftermath he will know if a government can be formed from all others except Sinn Féin, and he can be taoiseach again, for a turn. The odds are long, but the prize is historic.

More likely, less palatable, but even more historic, would be to lead Fianna Fáil in behind Sinn Féin. It could have been the opposite in 2020. But he sold the pass. What remains are myriad opportunities for Micheál Martin, including a walk in the park.