This is Fianna Fail's weekend, and delegates in the RDS have much to be happy about. It has been a good year and, after a shaky start, God is in his heaven and all seems well with the world. Let the good times roll on.
And yet Drapier knows full well that the sharper minds in the party are not going to be lulled into any false security. Drapier notes a bit of a chill in the political air, nothing dramatic, no need for immediate worry, but time nonetheless for a cool look.
Drapier still holds the view that this is a stable Government and has the potential to go the full distance, or as much of it as makes no difference.
But the past few weeks have given him pause for thought, and caused him to flag a few warning signs. The first of these is that in spite of the polls, the opposition parties are in better heart now than at any time since the last election. For the first time since the Ray Burke affair erupted the Government is under Dail pressure. This time it is on issues - the old perennials, health, agriculture, education and of course the structural funds - but now at least the opposition has more questions than the Government has answers, and the questions are being asked with a sharpness that has drawn blood more than once recently.
Health will continue to be the big one. Brian Cowen is not a lazy Minister. He has a good grasp of the issues and he gets to the point quicker than most. He has deliberately opted for a low-key profile and takes little of what he is told on trust. He is not going to be walked into it, as happened some of his predecessors, but he is in great danger of being seen as remote, indifferent and, that most politically incorrect of all sins, "uncaring". And unfortunately for him too, events have a sneaky habit of appearing out of nowhere - though, in truth, they are usually well orchestrated by one pressure group or the other. So the irony for Brian Cowen is that while there never was so much money in the health services the demands are growing all the while, incited by all this talk of limitless wealth but driven in most cases by real need. Every political clinic over these past few weeks has seen an increase in the numbers of people with their own tales of medical hardship and hospital shortcomings.
The truth is no health service can ever be too good. Here, as elsewhere, eaten bread is soon forgotten and the minister inevitably finds himself in the firing line.
But Drapier's main point this weekend is that the opposition parties are performing better - not dramatically, but enough to make a difference. The main difference is that at last they see this Government, in spite of Bertie Ahern's walking on water, as being ever so slightly vulnerable. Tight Dail majorities are nothing new and some of the best governments thrive on the excitement of such margins, but they do take their toll, not on the big parties, but on the people in the bearna baoil, the Independents.
Both Mildred Fox and Jackie Healy-Rae came under strong, at times passionate pressure in the House before the vote on the mental health issue. There will be many other such occasions and, no matter how open Bertie's door remains, the pressure does tell on the Independents. This may sound strange in a week in which Jackie Healy-Rae was never off the airwaves and seemed to be dictating Government policy. But the Government may yet discover that Jackie Healy-Rae is a double-edged sword - that there will come a time when the Government cannot say Yes and Jackie cannot back down. Even more than that, the "Jackie factor" may yet have a negative effect on the overall image of a Government allegedly in control.
Then too there is the vulnerability of the PDs. Drapier has never seen the party so shaken. Its leaders' brave words are belied by a body language of dejection and uncertainty. Few believe the party has any real future, and while that fact will cement them into the Government, and while Bertie Ahern will be sensitive to their needs, it is a situation which brings with it its own vulnerabilities, especially if the grass roots cannot be given something to give them hope.
From the opposition perspective the Simon Coveney victory did much for Fine Gael. The party needed a win and got it. John Bruton's position was never under threat, but a defeat would have unleashed a torrent of media speculation. Now at least he is secure and free to plan, especially for the local and European elections.
Ruairi Quinn has had a good first year. He has begun putting structures into place, building up his organisation and doing all the things an opposition leader should be doing. In many ways he is the most open of our political leaders and in tune especially with the younger sections of the electorate. His parliamentary party is spotty in the talent at its disposal but the advent of the "DL Four" should give him a boost there.
These past few weeks have given the opposition parties a sense that the real battles of the 28th Dail are just beginning. There is no question of the Government being in danger, but there are indications it can be as vulnerable as any of its predecessors. It is vulnerable to accidents, to internal pressures, to events, to unfulfillable expectations, all of which can be exploited by a hungry opposition.
There is one other factor which may add to the pressure on the Government. Unlike the post-1987 period when relations between Dick Spring and Alan Dukes, and then between Dick Spring and John Bruton were poisonous, relations between John Bruton, Ruairi Quinn and Proinsias De Rossa are friendly, and as far as is possible in these situations, trusting. The past few weeks have seen a high level of opposition cohesion, making it difficult for the Government to employ a policy of divide and conquer.
Drapier is not saying that anything dramatic is about to happen. The next big test will be the local and European elections. If Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fail do well - and at present this looks likely - there will be none of the problems which scuppered "84-seat" Jack Lynch in 1979. If the PDs do badly however their problems will be exacerbated.
For the Opposition the stakes are high. The local elections offer a chance to find new candidates and revitalise their organisations. They offer a chance to shake the Government and maybe even precipitate its demise earlier than expected.
June 1999 then is the next target for all parties. Expect plenty of liveliness between now and then.