Prospect of hung parliament in Westminster puts new pressure on Northern parties

Neither Arlene Foster nor Nigel Dodds when they launched their DUP election manifesto in Antrim on Wednesday got overly excited at the latest British polling which pointed to the possibility of a hung Westminster parliament. But with just over a week to go to polling day when 18 Northern Ireland MPs will be elected to the House of Commons, any continued indications of a neck-and-neck race to the finishing line will be closely scrutinised by the DUP, Sinn Féin and other parties.

Mindful of how the pollsters failed to predict Brexit or the Conservatives gaining an overall majority in the 2015 Westminster election, DUP leader Foster spoke about how “polls come and go” while deputy leader Nigel Dodds took the latest polling with a “great pinch of salt”.

But Dodds, who is battling to withstand the challenge from Sinn Féin's John Finucane in North Belfast, did offer some qualification, referring to those who had written off any prospect of Northern Ireland MPs having significant influence in the next British parliament needing "to be very careful".

In a pointed reference to Sinn Féin’s Westminster abstentionist policy, he added how those “who don’t go will have no influence whatsoever”.

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The main plank of the DUP Westminster election campaign is that the March Assembly election when Sinn Féin came within one seat and 1,200 votes of the DUP was a “wake-up call for unionism”.

Both Foster and Dodds stressed at the party’s manifesto launch in the old courthouse in Antrim that the highest priority in this election is not restoring the Northern Executive and Assembly, “but the union itself”.

There is no doubt that the Orange versus Green tussle is the big constitutional issue in this election, a fact reinforced by Foster calling on unionists to use their votes to state that Gerry Adams's call for a Border poll on unity must fail. But if the polls – notwithstanding scepticism about their accuracy – continue to signify that Jeremy Corbyn is gaining real ground on Theresa May then certainly the likes of Foster and Dodds also will point up how the DUP could have important leverage in the next Westminster parliament.

It’s an argument that they used during the 2015 campaign.

On Tuesday, Colum Eastwood, leader of the SDLP which is battling to hold onto to its three Westminster seats, also majored on how his MPs could have influence on issues such as a hard or soft Brexit in the event of a hung parliament.

And he too, in a reference to Sinn Féin, insisted “The only way to take a stand in this election is to take your seats – shouting from the sidelines will make no difference”.

None of this will shift Sinn Féin or Gerry Adams’s or Michelle O’Neill’s boycotting of the green benches of the House of Commons. They have made that abundantly clear time and time again.

It was interesting too, at a recent Sinn Féin North Belfast meeting where John Finucane and Michelle O’Neill were introduced to the voting public, to hear how the party faithful felt on the matter.

One man in the audience of about 160 had the temerity to suggest that in the light of Brexit and how it might damage the economy that Sinn Féin just might consider abandoning its principle of abstentionism. A number of other speakers in the audience were quick to denounce his suggestion as close to apostasy and perfidy.

O’Neill said that Sinn Féin members were “proud abstentionists”. So, there is no chance of Sinn Féin altering its position in the near future.

But if the polls continue to say that Labour is narrowing or has narrowed the gap between it and the Conservatives, Sinn Féin will face the irritation of being pressed on why it refuses to sit in a parliament which will decide the ultimate shape of Brexit and how it will affect Ireland.

There is no point in exaggerating the matter, but it is also an issue that might give some nationalists undecided between Sinn Féin and the SDLP pause for reflection.