Palin survives but did not deliver game-changer for Republicans

UNITED STATES:The vice-presidential candidate defied her critics this week, but voters are still heading towards Obama

THERE WAS no mistaking the relief on the faces of John McCain's supporters as they walked into the spin room at Washington University in St Louis after Thursday night's debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.

Palin's performance in a series of high-profile television interviews had been so shaky that some conservatives had called publicly for her to withdraw from the Republican ticket. In St Louis, however, she was confident and charming as she spoke - and sometimes winked - directly into the camera, addressing voters in the clear voice of middle America that had so endeared her to Republicans at last month's convention in St Paul.

"She came across as strong and knowledgeable," campaign strategist Frank Donatelli told The Irish Times.

"She demonstrated to the American public why she was chosen by John McCain." Independent Democratic senator Joe Lieberman, who is supporting McCain, acknowledged that the debate had presented Palin with a "crucial" test.

"There were doubts being raised about Governor Palin and she proved tonight that those doubts were not justified," he said.

"I think part of what people were wondering was: is she informed? Is she smart?"

It was easy to forget during the past week, as her sometimes excruciating interview with CBS News's Katie Couric was rolled out in painful, nightly instalments, how much energy Palin had brought to a flagging Republican presidential campaign.

More than 100,000 people have turned out to see her at rallies across the country, tens of millions of dollars have flowed into the Republican Party and thousands of volunteers have signed up to help the election effort.

Some Democrats had hoped that Thursday's debate would finish off the Alaskan governor but although Barack Obama's chief strategist David Axelrod praised Biden's performance, he acknowledged grudgingly that she had fared well.

"Governor Palin is a talented politician. She's good in debates. I think she did very well tonight," Axelrod said.

"She's good at this. She's good at looking at the camera and delivering lines and she did it tonight."

Palin's performance may have delighted the McCain campaign but it was not enough to provide the game-changer the Republican ticket needs as the election moves swiftly in Obama's direction.

Hours before Thursday's debate began, the McCain campaign confirmed that it was withdrawing from Michigan, one of two big states won by John Kerry in 2004 that Republicans hoped to win this year.

"If in fact they have taken Michigan off the table, that is probably the most important development in this campaign," said Axelrod.

"When you strip everything aside, this is all about electoral votes."

Michigan's 17 electoral votes could have gone a long way towards bringing McCain to the 270 he needs to reach the White House. His decision to retreat from the state comes as polls show Obama opening up a plausible lead, not only in Michigan but in traditionally Republican states such as Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana.

Obama has a number of possible routes to 270 electoral votes, assuming that he holds almost all of the states Kerry won in 2004 and picks up Iowa and New Mexico, which George Bush won by a small margin.

Even if the Democrat fails to pick up one of the two biggest prizes - Ohio and Florida - he can make up the difference if he wins with some combination of Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina.

McCain is now focusing on holding Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada and targeting three states Kerry won in 2004 - Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

The shift towards Obama that has accompanied the financial crisis in recent weeks has forced McCain to invest resources in states such as Indiana and North Carolina, which Republicans have until now regarded as safe. The fact that he had to abandon Michigan to remain competitive elsewhere reflects the fact that McCain, who has accepted campaign finance limits, is at a clear financial disadvantage to Obama, who can raise and spend as much as he likes.

With more than four weeks to go to election day, McCain still has time to turn the race around but his campaign can afford no more major missteps.

Happily for him, Palin held up well in St Louis and even if she did not win over many new supporters, she ensured that she is no longer a drag on the Republican ticket.