THE SCALE of the challenge facing South Africa’s opposition parties in next week’s general election was brought sharply into focus on Wednesday following the publication of a popularity poll on the country’s political leaders.
Despite the cloud of suspicion hanging over the African National Congress’s (ANC) Jacob Zuma over corruption charges dramatically withdrawn by state prosecutors last week, the ANC’s political leader remains the most popular in South Africa by some margin.
According to pollsters Ipsos Markinor, Mr Zuma is the favourite leader among people likely to vote on April 22nd with a rating of 6.5 out of 10, compared to his closest rival Democratic Alliance (DA) leader Helen Zille who scored 4.3.
Next in line came Congress of the People (Cope) chairperson Mosiuoa Lekota at 4.1, followed by Independent Democratic (ID) leader Patricia de Lille at 3.9 and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi with 3.4.
However, another telling insight garnered from the poll is that the majority of South Africa’s black electorate, the country’s ethnic majority by far, remains steadfastly loyal to a party that many feel has failed to deliver the type of government they seek.
“In contrast to likely black voters who favour Jacob Zuma [7.7 out of 10],” the pollsters report, “the other population groups are more varied in terms of the political party leaders that they favour.”
After 15 years of democracy under a former liberation movement that has struggled to tackle poor service delivery, crime and political corruption, it appears the scars of apartheid may be too fresh for other parties to benefit significantly from the ruling regime’s failings.
Gideon Mphose from Durban, a Xhosa man in his early 30s, told The Irish Times that he was unhappy with the current ANC leadership, but he could not bring himself to vote for any of the other parties. “I could never vote for the DA because they were the oppressors. And Cope are no different to the ANC, they are just former members of the party who lost out when Zuma took over from Mbeki [former ANC and SA president] in 2007,” he said.
For those attempting to break the ANC’s stranglehold on government, the key to a successful election campaign lies in how well they can change the black majority’s preconceptions of them, political analysts have said.
Roland Henwood of the Centre for International Political Studies said the DA’s Helen Zille was doing well for her party, offering voters a new type of leadership in a political formation that struggled to shake off its apartheid era history. “Zille’s style is more accommodating and geared towards securing broader support than her predecessor Tony Leon, who was more in your face.
“She speaks fluent Xhosa [one of the country’s main tribal languages] and is trying to link with the different communities on issues that are important to them, so she can cross the racial divide,” he said.
In the 2004 general election, the DA won 12.3 per cent of the vote, which gave the party 50 seats in the National Assembly.
This time round the party believes it will do better and remains confident it can take control of the Western Cape Province from the ANC, albeit with the support of some smaller opposition parties.
Indeed, the latest survey released by Plus 94 Research indicated the ANC would win the election with 61 per cent of the vote, but that the DA and Cope would secure 16 per cent and 15 per cent of the poll respectively.
Cope, South Africa’s newest political party was officially unveiled last November and, according to Mr Henwood, it would be very naive to believe the party could poll well after less than six months. “Aside from their age, they made strategic errors when putting forward Bishop Mvume Dandala as their candidate for the presidency over party leader Mosiuoa Lekota, who was felt to be too close to former president Thabo Mbeki.
“Their campaign also started late due to a lack of funding. They get no state resources because they are a new party. The ANC has spent R120 million (€10 million) of taxpayers’ money on this election, while the DA has spent R60 million (€5 million).”
Moeletsi Mbeki, a political economist with the South African Institute of International Affairs also believes that Cope will fail to shine in this election. “Cope shot itself in the foot when it fought publicly about its presidential candidate. They also adopted many of the ANC’s policies, which did little to support the position it has something new to offer people,” he says.
The once powerful Zulu dominated IFP under chief Buthelezi may also poll badly in KwaZulu Natal Province, its heartland, due to the rise to power of Mr Zuma who is of Zulu extraction and from the region.
In what appeared to be an admittance of defeat, Mr Buthelezi conceded yesterday his party was unlikely to do well, although citing “vote rigging” in favour of the ANC on the election day as the reason why.