Mitt Romney's lost opportunity

For all the Republican efforts to cast President Barack Obama as a failed leader who created a lost generation of young people…

For all the Republican efforts to cast President Barack Obama as a failed leader who created a lost generation of young people with diminished prospects for financial success, Mr Obama has maintained a strong advantage over Mitt Romney among the crucial constituency of young voters, slightly increasing his lead in polls since the spring.

Despite the Romney campaign's message that the "Obama economy" - specifically, the recession and the slow recovery - has been detrimental to young job-seekers, Mr Romney has made very limited gains since the spring among likely voters aged 18 to 29.

Those findings, from a national poll of young voters conducted for the Harvard Institute of Politics, highlight a lost opportunity for Mr Romney, experts said. Earlier polls by the institute found a high level of undecided voters who, when compared to voters in 2008, were significantly more likely to identify themselves as conservative and cite a lack of faith in government.

Mr Romney's selection of a more youthful and conservative running mate, Paul Ryan, seems to have had a negative effect on some young voters, with 40 per cent saying Mr Ryan's nomination made them "much less likely" to vote for Mr Romney.

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Mr Ryan (42) is more conservative than most young voters on social issues and the role of government in society.

"There was an opportunity for the Republican Party and Mitt Romney to connect to this generation about economic principles, and that opportunity hasn't been seized," said John Della Volpe, polling director at the Harvard Institute of Politics.

"There's no evidence in the survey that Mr Romney has been able to transcend in the millennial segment."

In a spring survey, 34 per cent of likely young voters said they supported Mr Romney  compared with 51 per cent for Mr Obama.

The survey, conducted from September 19th to October 3rd and released yesterday, found Mr Romney's level of support went to 36 per cent, but that Mr Obama's support had grown to 55 per cent.

Among female voters, Mr Obama was favoured 53 per cent to 33 per cent, and among men his advantage was 54 per cent to 38 per cent.

Mr Obama was also leading among blacks and Hispanics but Mr Romney had a four-point advantage among young whites - a group Mr Obama won over in 2008.

Data from the poll and interviews of likely voters suggest Mr Obama's message that his administration has made steady progress is resonating with people under 30, whose unemployment rate has for months been higher than the national average.

The portion of young people identifying themselves as independents who said the country was headed in the right direction doubled, to 16 per cent from 8 per cent, since the spring.

The figure among young Republican voters remained flat, at 7 per cent, while among Democrats it was 48 per cent.

"Barack Obama is a charismatic individual with a youthfulness about him and a way of speaking that works with young people," said Wade Peery (28), a Romney supporter in Galax, Virginia, who said he was not surprised his favoured candidate did not have more support among young people.

"I think there are a lot of people who have been on that Obama bandwagon since he's been in office. Things have changed, and they don't want to see that there might be a better option here in Mitt Romney."

The online poll of 2,123 18- to 29-year-olds was conducted for the Harvard Institute of Politics by Knowledge Networks and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The poll concluded on the day of the first presidential debate, in which Mr Romney was viewed as having outperformed the president. The lift Mr Romney received is not reflected in the findings.

Mr Peery said he was especially pleased with Mr Romney's performance in the first debate. "That's like the Super Bowl of politics, and if the president isn't going to take the time to prepare and do a great job, how do I know he's going to take other important things seriously?" Mr Peery said. "He took it on the chin and didn't fight back. That blows my mind."

Mr Peery was impressed with Mr Obama's stronger performance in the second debate. But, he said, it was too little, too late. Young Obama supporters see things differently, however.

"The way I feel, the country and the economy are on the right track, and that's a lot better than being on the wrong track," said James Wootten (25), a student and restaurant server in Charlottesville, Virginia. "Housing prices are going up, unemployment claims are going down, and the stock market looks pretty good."

If Mr Romney missed an opening with some young voters, Mr Obama has missed an opportunity, too, in motivating young Hispanics, according to the Harvard poll.

They indicate they would support Mr Obama by a wide margin, but of all the groups of young people they appear the least likely to turn out to vote. While 59 per cent of blacks said they intended to vote, only 31 per cent of Hispanics registered to vote said they would definitely cast a ballot.

Hispanic voters tend to turn out at lower rates than the general public, and many are clustered in states such as California and Texas that are not battlegrounds. Therefore they are not subject to the registration drives and intense campaign work that states such as Virginia and North Carolina experience.

Christian Del Cid, a senior student at the University of Maryland and a member of the Latino Student Union, said he was leaning toward Mr Obama, but wanted both candidates to fight for his vote until election day.

"I'm leaning toward Obama because he took the presidency at a very troubled time, but Latinos do feel a little bit disheartened: where was the immigration reform?" Del Cid said.

"And there have been more deportations than under Bush. Latinos need to matter more than once every four years."

NYT