MIDDLE EAST: Ariel Sharon has been dubbed Mr Comeback by more than one political commentator. But the Israeli leader, who rose to the position of prime minister despite the seemingly career-shattering ignominy he earned over the 1982 Lebanon War, will need to spark a remarkable revival tomorrow if he is to win a referendum in the ruling Likud party on his Gaza withdrawal plan.
The most recent opinion poll, among the almost 200,000 Likud members, yesterday showed opponents of the plan with a 6.5 per cent lead.
Just two weeks ago, Mr Sharon was glowing with self-satisfaction: he had just returned from a successful trip to the US in which President Bush had enthusiastically backed his disengagement plan, which entails a unilateral withdrawal from all 21 settlements in Gaza and a further four in the northern West Bank.
Opinion surveys revealed a yawning 20-point gap in his favour. Three top Likud ministers who had been vacillating, publicly announced their support for his plan. Among them Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his main rival in the party.
A seemingly safe gambit looked as if it was about to play out as the prime minister had planned: Likud members would vote resoundingly in favour of his plan, recalcitrant Likud ministers would have no choice but to back it in the cabinet, and the same would go for unenthusiastic party lawmakers when the withdrawal blueprint reached its final hurdle - a vote in parliament.
But Mr Sharon has watched his lead in the polls evaporate at an alarming rate. Four separate opinion surveys in the last 48 hours have all predicted he will lose tomorrow. In response, he has resorted to sketching doomsday scenarios in a bid to scare Likud members into supporting him. He has warned of everything from economic decline to diplomatic meltdown, to the demise of the ruling party.
Mr Sharon told Israel TV's Channel Two news programme last night that he did not know "if it will be possible to conduct the matters of state" should his plan be defeated. "I believe it will lead to new elections, which would be very bad for Israel and utterly superfluous."
For a former general who led more than one successful Israel military campaign, Mr Sharon appears to have made the most basic of errors - underestimating the enemy. Jewish settlers in Gaza and the West Bank - his one-time allies who have turned against him since he announced his disengagement plan - have run a highly efficient, well-funded campaign.
With the assistance also of several wealthy right-wing Jews in the US, activists of the anti-withdrawal camp have phoned most Likud members, visited them at home, and even brought some of them to visit the settlements in Gaza. Their messages have played well with Likud members, who are hawkish: withdrawal is a reward for Palestinian terror; Jews should not be uprooted.
Mr Sharon's critics on the far right have also accused him of floating the plan in a bid to escape possible indictment in two corruption probes against him. Palestinian leaders, for their part, believe his plan is to sacrifice Gaza in an effort to strengthen Israel's hold on the West Bank.
The possibility of Mr Sharon being defeated has sparked speculation about his future. There have been suggestions he might resign if he is unable to implement his plan. Another option is calling an election, with the Gaza plan the focal issue. Or he might try to hold a national referendum on the plan, which has the support of two thirds of the public.
If he loses, however, Mr Sharon could well find himself exposed to leadership challenges from within his own Likud party.