Leaders declare end to economic downturn

European Union leaders confidently declared the economic downturn was over and said agreed reform measures would bolster recovery…

European Union leaders confidently declared the economic downturn was over and said agreed reform measures would bolster recovery.

But recent evidence suggests their optimism may be misplaced. Sliding business confidence in Italy and a tumble in French consumer spending along with zero first-quarter growth in Britain with Germany doing little better, and the overall picture is far from rosy, economists say.

The EU's 15 heads of government were unabashed. "The recent downturn in economic activity has ended," they bluntly said at the end of two-day summit in Seville.

"The European economy is set to reap the benefits of sound macroeconomic policies and ambitious economic reform, which will underpin the ongoing recovery of growth and job creation."

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No mention was made of the euro which has climbed steadily in recent weeks, hitting a two-year high against the dollar.

The argument over the economic stability pact seems to have gone the way of France, which has been looking for flexibility, and Germany who were also quietly hoping for a loosening of the terms.

At a lengthy meeting of finance ministers on Thursday France said it would only meet a commitment to move its budget deficit close to balance in 2004 if economic growth was strong.

All 15 EU nations agreed to balance their budgets by 2004 in a stability pact signed five years ago, but France says it may not be able to do so before 2007 because of the tax cuts President Jacques Chirac's promised in his recent election campaign.

Finance Minister Mr Francis Mer said France will reach the goal in two years only if its economy grows by at least three per cent next year. It is expected to expand just 1.5 per cent this year.

So far, financial markets have not reacted but some pundits say the caveat represents a loosening of the fiscal straitjacket - a claim rejected by European Commission President Romano Prodi.

"The stability pact comes out with no change. There is no step forward or backward," he told a closing news conference.

"I don't think this is a French victory. As far as the economic aspects are involved, we have reached a compromise that was considered obvious even on the eve of the meeting," Mr Prodi said.

The summit text restated a joint commitment to the pact, aimed at preventing member countries from driving up debt levels and threatening inflation, and backed the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines (BEPG) drawn up by the finance ministers.

"Member states are encouraged to use any growth dividend related to the economic recovery to consolidate public finances further," the text said.

The EU leaders said the economic reform agenda first agreed at a Lisbon summit two years ago, on deregulating key markets, must be "vigorously pursued", particularly the final stage of the opening of electricity and gas markets.