The Shia majority may have to temper its demands due to a strong showing by Kurds and mechanisms to protect the Sunnis, writes Michael Jansen.
The big winners in Iraq's elections were Shia religious parties and Kurdish federalists espousing contradictory policies. The Shias favour a strong central government and want Iraq to become a country with a clear "Islamic identity", while the Kurds prefer a secular state and demand the sanctification of their autonomous status in loose federation.
Nevertheless, ahead of yesterday's announcement of the results for Iraq's January 30th national election, these two blocs engaged in horse-trading over top posts in the new government. Now that the final tally has been announced, they are likely to fine-tune negotiating positions because the Shia list, the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), did less well than predicted while the Kurdish list did somewhat better.
Mr Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, who heads the Alliance list, confidently predicted it would win 60 per cent of the vote, the figure corresponding to the percentage of Shias in the population. Analysts suggested the Alliance would secure just over half. But Iraq's voters gave it 48 per cent, just under a majority in the 275- member national assembly. The Alliance, a loose coalition of mainly religious parties endorsed by Shia Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, could be forced to temper its demands. But since the Shia bloc has a long-term strategy for achieving its ends, it could afford to do so.
The Kurdish list, comprised of the two main Kurdish political parties, the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), won 26 per cent, although it was expected to take around 20 per cent, the percentage of Kurds in the populace. This result could encourage them to boost their demands by calling for the annexation of the oil city of Kirkuk to their autonomous area.
The avowedly secular list of the interim Prime Minister, Mr Iyad Allawi, also did less well than expected, winning only 14 per cent of the vote, making it unlikely that he would be chosen to head the new government. As an alternative, Mr Allawi has pledged to be the leader of the opposition and to fight for secularism and pluralism.
Shias and Kurds have been dickering because the first task of the new parliament will be to choose by a two-thirds vote a president and two vice-presidents who will, in turn, select a prime minister. The Kurds have put forward Mr Jalal Talabani, the PUK chief, as their candidate for president. One vice-president is expected to be Shia, the other Sunni. The UIA is determined to name the prime minister.
Three nominees have been suggested: Mr Adel Abdul Mahdi, finance minister in the current government, who is a member of the pro-Iranian Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq; Mr Ibrahim al-Jaafari, the present vice-president, who heads the Islamic Dawa party; and Mr Ahmad Chalabi. Dr Hussein Shahristani, a confidant of Ayatollah Sistani is also a likely contender.
Once a government is formed, the assembly will name a commission to draft the new constitution. Shias could agree to Kurdish demands for federalism, which is deeply unpopular with the majority of Iraqi Arabs, in exchange for the incorporation of elements of Islamic law which might not be applied in Kurdish areas. Sunnis, who did not vote because of insurgent violence or boycott, will be under-represented but cannot be ignored because they could veto the constitution set to be put to a referendum on October 15th. Consequently, the Shia bloc has been courting the Sunnis by offering ministries, seats in the assembly, or positions on the constitutional commission. The Shias could attempt to co-opt conservative Sunni clerics ready to back their programme of Islamisation and resist Kurdish demands over Kirkuk.