THE GOVERNMENT will not receive the remaining guarantees it is seeking on the Lisbon Treaty at next week’s EU summit, a tacit acknowledgment that an early referendum is now highly unlikely.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin told the Oireachtas committee on European affairs yesterday that EU leaders would “touch on the Lisbon Treaty issue, but no substantive discussion is planned”. He said the main focus of the meeting would be debating measures designed to tackle the economic and financial crisis and climate change.
The draft conclusions prepared by European diplomats for the European Council say EU leaders were “informed of the state of play in implementing its conclusions of December 2008 on the Treaty of Lisbon” and it “will revert to this issue at its June 2009 meeting”.
This timetable suggests the remaining clarifications sought by the Government on the Lisbon Treaty, on social/ethical issues, neutrality and taxation, will be formally agreed and subsequently published at an EU summit on June 18th-19th. This would leave no time to organise and publicise a second referendum on the treaty in Ireland until September or October.
In recent weeks there has been speculation that the Government would hold a second referendum in May or June to capitalise on improved public support for the treaty in opinion polls. Some Ministers have also argued that an early vote would send a positive message to the markets about Ireland’s place at the heart of the EU.
But there is still debate within Government on elements of the clarifications, particularly whether Ireland should withdraw from the European Defence Agency. Green Party leader John Gormley says Ireland should withdraw while Minister for Defence Willie O’Dea wants it to stay in the agency, which helps states develop their defence capabilities.
Some members of the Government, including Minister for European Affairs Dick Roche, have also argued that it would be risky to rush the referendum through early or hold it on the same day as the European elections. “Holding it on the same day as the European elections would provide eurosceptics with a campaign gift,” according to Mr Roche.
There is also little appetite in Europe for a debate on the treaty at next week’s summit where EU leaders will grapple with potentially divisive proposals to cope with the financial crisis. The draft conclusions, which have been obtained by The Irish Times, show EU leaders will discuss a major reform of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which includes whether to offer the body emergency loans worth $75-100 billion.
This new lending facility would be on top of a proposal to double IMF resources from $250 million to €500 million to enable it to continue helping states that run into funding problems. EU leaders will also debate ending a long-standing tradition whereby a European leads the IMF and an American leads the World Bank. Instead, a new governance structure should reflect the relative weight of various economies – opening the way to provide more influence to large developing states such as China.
At the Oireachtas committee on European affairs yesterday, Labour TD Joe Costello said his party was disappointed that the Government has not been forthcoming in “opening up the discussion” on the Lisbon Treaty guarantees. “So far we have not seen any text of any guarantees nor have we been made aware of any negotiations,” he said.