JUST OVER seven million Swedish voters will go to the polls tomorrow after a fractious and bitterly fought general election campaign that could produce a hung parliament and a chaotic political scene.
Prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt has enjoyed a strong lead during recent weeks over his rival, social democrat Mona Sahlin.
Mr Reinfeldt heads a four-party centre-right coalition government that has garnered much praise for its skilful stewardship of Sweden’s economy during the recession.
But although Mr Reinfeldt’s coalition, known as the Alliance, is tipped to trump Ms Sahlin’s centre-left contenders, they face being denied an outright majority by a new force in Swedish politics: the populist and xenophobic Sweden Democrats.
Led by Jimmie Åkesson, a clean-cut 30-something, this party could win as much as 7 per cent of the vote, thanks to a slick blend of scaremongering and populism. With its roots in the “Keep Sweden Swedish” campaign, the party has hovered on the edge of established political circles for two decades. If the opinion polls hold true, this election will mark its parliamentary debut.
Six or 7 per cent of votes would be sufficient to rob either Mr Reinfeldt or Ms Sahlin of a clear mandate to rule. Sweden’s charismatic foreign minister, Carl Bildt, told The Irish Times this week the Alliance’s response to this eventuality would be “to govern”. But doing so would prove difficult unless the Alliance could persuade the opposition Green Party to switch sides. So far, the Greens say they’re sticking with Ms Sahlin and supporting her effort to become Sweden’s first female prime minister.
The Alliance is in an unusually fortuitous position for a European incumbent government seeking re-election. With GDP expanding 4.6 per cent year on year, it is the fastest-growing economy in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Exports are booming, the public deficit is slated to disappear next year and unemployment is a modest 7.4 per cent.
In short, Sweden seems to have beaten the recession well ahead of most of its European neighbours. Anders Borg, Sweden’s youthful and pony-tailed finance minister, is the architect of this turnaround.
His recipe – cutting public spending in order to finance lower taxes for people who are working – has succeeded in bringing the national books towards balance. The tactic of boosting the incentive to work has made him quite the superstar in the Swedish firmament. “Lots of people don’t understand his technical language. But they trust him,” said Johan Shück, a political analyst. But while life in Sweden may have improved for those with jobs, the centre-left opposition says things have become far tougher for the poor, single parents, the elderly and the long-term unemployed.
Pensioners, said shadow finance minister Thomas Östros, pay 700 crowns (€75) more a month in tax than younger workers. “This is unfair,” he said.
Unfortunately for Mr Östros, it is the upstart Sweden Democrats rather than his own Social Democrats who will likely reap the rewards of this inequity. The Social Democrats have ruled Sweden for most of the last century, either alone or in coalition, with only intermittent and short-lived non-social governments breaking their stride.
This is set to change tomorrow when Mr Reinfeldt becomes the first non-socialist premier to win two consecutive terms.
Worse still for the Social Democrats, many of their traditional working-class votes are seeping away to the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats who peddle a simple and very clear message: cut immigration, crack down on crime, help the elderly.
Analysts say that “grumpy old men and uneducated young men” find the message seductive.
Established politicians are unnerved, especially when Sweden Democratic rhetoric tips over into blatant racism.