EUROPEAN DIARY:Brussels is already planning for a Tory victory this year and the high-stakes game of give-and-take that is bound to result, writes ARTHUR BEESLEY
THE BRITISH election is still months away, but the prospect of the Tories taking office is already exercising minds in Brussels.
Although David Cameron says he doesn’t want a “Euro bust-up”, he has set the ground for a testy engagement with the union.
Cameron laid down a marker last year when he withdrew the Conservatives from the European People’s Party, the most powerful alliance in the European Parliament, to form a tiny group of their own. At a time when the parliament’s powers are expanding, this move curtailed the reach of Tory influence on EU legislation.
Still, it served to appease, at least temporarily, some of his party’s more ardent Eurosceptics. This was important for Cameron, who wants to avoid becoming a prisoner of his party’s eternal divisions over the EU. Feuding makes for great political pantomime, but the risks are obvious and Cameron has gone out of his way to avoid fireworks.
For more than a decade, the Conservatives’ European policy had no substantial bearing in Brussels. But if Cameron enters Downing Street – as high-ranking EU officials assume he will – his stance would cast a wide beam.
Even though senior Tories stress that his prime focus is the economy, a game of give-and-take on the chessboard of European power seems inevitable.
Although efforts to jump-start the EU economy and protect the euro from the Greek financial crisis are the current focus in Brussels, discreet efforts are under way to assess the potential implications of the Tories returning to power.
War games? Not exactly, yet well-versed sources say the issue is already “live” within the European institutions, particularly in the European Council or assembly of EU governments.
This flows from the policy Cameron introduced last autumn after Irish voters passed the Lisbon Treaty. He had promised a referendum on the pact if it was not in force by the time he entered office. The Irish Yes meant he did not have to come good on that promise. However, he pledged not to let matters rest.
In his new policy, Cameron invoked plenty of Churchillian “never again” language, including a “guarantee” to hold a referendum on any new EU treaty and an opt-out from the charter of fundamental rights. More immediately, however, he also promised to repatriate powers to Britain, including social and employment legislation.
This is not without technical complexity – and great political challenge. As Shane Fitzgerald and Paul Gillespie pointed out in a recent paper for the Institute of International and European Affairs, repatriation could only happen in a new treaty.
“Any new negotiation would therefore require the support of 14 member states to begin talks, and the approval of all 27 member states to effect any change.”
Post-Lisbon, there is little appetite for that. After French European minister Pierre Lellouche accused the Tories of “castrating” Britain’s position in Europe, Ireland was among a number of countries to echo the negative vibe. Allies of Angela Merkel, for example, declared that the German chancellor was “fed up” negotiating European treaties.
Still, in the corridors of EU office blocks it is readily acknowledged that it would be very difficult for Europe to resist pressure for a modest review from a member of Britain’s size and might. In that context, EU sources say Cameron would have to yield something in return.
Quite what quid would be sought for which quo remains to be seen. While it is uncertain whether Cameron would be willing to give as well as take, this is a basic tenet of current EU thinking.
For all that, Cameron is nothing if not calculating. After more than a decade in the political wilderness, the Tories would be foolhardy to set themselves up for a battle they could not win in Brussels.
If credibility as a potential prime minister is crucial to his prospects, that could be frittered away if he marched into a European stone wall with sights set too high.
Even Cameron’s enemies say he is smarter than that. Given the parlous economic situation he stands to inherit, his priority is already clear. One option for him is to shunt Europe on to the back burner by making big demands in talks on future initiatives.
However, with pro-European sentiment among Tories weaker now than in Margaret Thatcher’s time, that may not wash. In a poll last year of 144 Tory candidates by the ConservativeHome website, 47 per cent said they wanted powers repatriated from the EU and a further 38 per cent wanted a renegotiation of British membership.
It is numbers such as these – and Cameron’s own political outlook – that have officials on alert in the top echelons of the EU. There may be no brawl, but he seems certain to come knocking and the prospect of copycat claims elsewhere is a further concern in Brussels. This story will run.